Ethereum's slowdown signal before running a red light — whales "flee" while retail investors "relay"

ETH current price is approximately $1.93K, down 4.14% over 24 hours. Behind this seemingly normal fluctuation, hidden currents of on-chain whales and retail traders’ “counter-dancing”—is this a typical pre-breakout buildup stage or an early warning of accelerating decline?

On-chain whale concentration surges, large holders quietly retreat

Latest on-chain data shows Ethereum’s top 10 addresses’ concentration has soared to 75.04%, and the top 100 addresses’ concentration reaches 84.89%. What does this indicate? The holdings of large whales are becoming more concentrated, meaning circulating ETH on the platform is becoming scarcer. It appears that “popularity” is rebounding, but in reality, whales are quietly offloading—distributing chips above $2,000 to eager retail traders trying to bottom fish. This is also the fundamental reason why each rebound to $2,000 fails to break through with volume.

Retail traders see it as “cheap” and rush in to buy, pushing the number of active addresses to new highs. But this actually signals small traders are filling the pits. They overlook a key negative: ETF net outflows persist, and stablecoin market cap shrinks, indicating that real new capital isn’t entering. The current rebound is entirely a game of “hot potato” by on-chain funds.

Technical stagnation: false rebound amid shrinking volume

The daily chart is firmly suppressed by a downward channel, with moving averages remaining in a bearish alignment. RSI has fallen to 38 in oversold territory, but this is a warning sign. Why? Because the rebound lacks volume support. This suggests that buying is mainly retail “catching knives,” while institutional and whale enthusiasm has clearly waned.

When an oversold rebound occurs with no volume, it indicates insufficient buying interest at the bottom, and the next break below support could be more ferocious. A volume-less rebound is a weak rebound, signaling declining market participation. Major players are gradually withdrawing from the stage.

Between $1.93K and $2.03K: a “dialogue” between retail and whales

Key levels are clearly defined:

Life and death line: $1,880–1,900. This is a strong on-chain support zone. Falling below here will accelerate the decline toward $1,800.

Strong resistance: $2,000–2,030. This is a critical area of trapped positions. Multiple attempts to break through without volume indicate a “trap” of false breakout.

The current pattern is clear—whales are gradually distributing near $2,000, while retail is slowly accumulating around $1,880. The volume-less oscillation window won’t last long; a trend reversal is approaching.

When will the volume-less oscillation end? Two possible critical breakthroughs

The “temperature” is cooling, and shrinking volume has become the norm. The next breakout could go in two directions:

First: Volume breakout above $2,030. If stablecoin inflows increase, ETF net inflows reverse, whales stop distributing, and new institutional funds enter, then a genuine breakout might occur. But these conditions are not yet in place, so the probability is low.

Second: Falling below $1,880 to shake out traders. This scenario is more likely—whales will complete their final distribution, shake out the last believers, and then re-accumulate. This is also a necessary “brake” before red lights.

Trading strategies

Short-term traders: Light positions, buy high and sell low. Consider long positions near $1,900, short positions near $1,980, with strict stop-losses. Volume is the best signal—act only when volume confirms.

Medium- to long-term holders: Now is not the time to bottom fish. Hold back and wait for a drop below $1,750 to consider accumulating in stages—that’s the real bottom zone. Chasing higher now carries too much risk.

Ethereum is still “waiting at the red light,” not ready to surge. Patience and confirmation signals from volume are more important than blind participation.