Bernstein upgrades gold price forecast and raises Newmont rating

Investing.com - Bernstein upgrades Newmont from in line with the market to outperform, and raises the target price from $121 to $157, citing significantly higher long-term gold price expectations.

The brokerage raised its gold price forecast to $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 per ounce in 2030, reflecting a new framework that links prices to central bank and ETF net demand as well as the impact of U.S. rate cuts.

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Bernstein states that in recent years, gold demand has been mainly driven by central bank purchases and ETF fund flows. Since Russia was cut off from the SWIFT system in 2022, central bank buying has remained high, while ETF flows have fluctuated in relation to actual interest rate changes.

The firm says its net demand model and rate cut analysis point to similar price outcomes. It also cites central bank surveys showing sustained demand for gold.

Based on higher price forecasts, Bernstein has raised its EBITDA estimate for Newmont by 26% to $21.9 billion, noting that the stock has a clear leverage to rising gold prices.

In a 2025 survey of 73 central banks, 95% of respondents expect global gold reserves to increase over the next year, with 43% indicating their holdings will grow. Over a five-year horizon, 76% expect gold’s share in reserves to rise, while 73% expect the dollar reserves’ share to decline.

The brokerage highlights other company-specific catalysts, including the new CEO and their 2026 agenda, potential room to surpass management’s low single-digit production decline guidance, and the opportunity to build a more constructive relationship with its largest joint venture partner.

Bernstein has raised its valuation multiple from 6.50x EV/EBITDA to 6.75x, applying it to its 2027 EBITDA forecast.

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