CITIC Futures: Market sentiment remains weak, tin prices continue to adjust

The supply issues of tin remain a key factor affecting prices: the resolution of the Wa Bang explosive approval problem has eased local supply tensions; in Indonesia, short-term supply is expected to remain limited due to the impact of RKAB approval; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains severe, intensifying supply concerns. Looking ahead, on the supply side, mine output continues to tighten, making it difficult to increase refined tin production. Recently, tin concentrate processing fees have risen, reflecting increased financial pressure on some smelters. On the demand side, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, with consumption in solar energy, new energy vehicles, and other fields continuing to rise. Considering the need to rebuild industry chain inventories, tin ingot demand is expected to keep growing. Overall, tin prices are still supported at the bottom, but short-term price volatility risks should be watched. First, under the backdrop of a relatively strong US dollar index, market sentiment is weak, leading to a broad correction in the non-ferrous metals and precious metals sectors. Second, recent mine supply conditions have not continued to worsen, so tin prices lack further upward momentum in the short term. Third, the bullish momentum has weakened. In the medium to long term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. However, short-term price volatility risks should be monitored. (CITIC Futures)