Bitcoin in a decisive structure: The catalysts that determine the next move

The structure of Bitcoin in 2026 is at a critical breaking point. After a sustained gain in 2024, the market faces a correction that has called into question the assumptions driving the previous rally. The current price hovers around $65,490, down -1.70% in the last 24 hours, but the deeper questions are not about daily movements but about what structure needs to be rebuilt for Bitcoin to find clear direction again. The key lies in understanding what missing catalysts need to arrive.

From the 2024 expansionary structure to current uncertainty

During 2024, Bitcoin’s advance was not driven solely by technical momentum. The movement was built on a structural transformation in demand. The approval and launch of spot ETFs opened a new channel for institutional capital, creating a steady flow that acted as a permanent buy-side supply. Simultaneously, the halving narrative reinforced the story of supply restriction. That combination of reduced new coin issuance with fresh demand produced a favorable imbalance that pushed the price through all-time highs and toward new levels.

On the weekly chart, each retracement during that phase was superficial. Capital rotation was consistent, and favorable liquidity conditions maintained risk appetite. But 2025 marked a turning point. As Bitcoin approached the $110,000 to $130,000 region, ETF flows slowed down. In several weeks, they even turned into net outflows. This shift was decisive: the market was no longer being structurally absorbed by passive flows at the same rate as before.

Technical structure under pressure: The $70,000 level as a critical threshold

Losing the technical level of 70,092 was more than a chart event; it marked an important structural transition. That zone had acted as a consolidation support in previous phases and as a structural base during the bullish breakout. A weekly close below this level indicated that the previous demand narrative had significantly weakened.

Markets move on flows, and when the assumption of continuous ETF absorption faded, the price structure adjusted. The appearance of lower highs followed by lower lows confirmed the change in dynamics: from expansion to correction. During this period, on-chain data showed distribution of long-term holder positions, while short-term trader cost bases converged toward current prices. This pattern typically increases volatility because supply becomes more sensitive to fluctuations.

What catalysts are needed to stabilize the structure?

Recovering and maintaining the $70,000 level on a weekly basis would be the first technical signal that risk has diminished. But stabilization requires both technical and fundamental alignment. On the fundamental side, the following would be needed:

Renewed and sustained ETF flows: A consistent return of institutional inflows would be crucial. Without passive capital absorption, the structure lacks a floor.

Clear signals of monetary easing: Expectations of aggressive rate cuts in the US have been postponed, keeping financial conditions tighter. A shift in this macroeconomic narrative would be transformative.

Significant corporate allocations: Large corporations making balance sheet allocations could provide the capital flow that ETFs previously supplied.

Without renewed liquidity and supportive liquidity context, recovery faces difficulties. Higher bond yields and a firm dollar have reduced speculative appetite in risk assets, as seen in the renewed correlation between Bitcoin and broader liquidity conditions.

Possible scenarios: Rebuilding or seeking deeper balance

If conditions do not materialize, markets typically look for the next significant value area after losing a high-timeframe support. A move toward the $52,360 region would represent a logical structural retracement, not an anomaly. This would not necessarily mean the end of the broader cycle by default, but rather a reset phase within it.

The 2025 correction reflects slowing capital flows, macroeconomic pressure, and profit-taking near cyclical highs. Bitcoin is not currently in a defined trend but in a decision zone where liquidity, capital rotation, and weekly closes will determine whether the market rebuilds its structure above previous pivots or continues seeking a deeper balance.

The weekly structure remains the critical framework. The next week or two will determine if Bitcoin can establish technical stability that convinces participants that demand is reviving. Without those catalysts, the structure faces more downside tests.