Key Events in 2026

March 6 US February Non-Farm Payroll Report — Data personally highlighted by Waller as the 'coin decision'
March 17-18 FOMC Meeting — Market pricing: less than a 10% chance of rate cut in March
May Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed Chair — The biggest variable for Federal Reserve independence and policy path
July Section 122 Tariff 150-day window expires — The biggest macroeconomic suspense in the second half of the year
November US Midterm Elections — Political decision window for tariff legislation and fiscal stimulus