Bitcoin Could Be Headed to $30K as Analyst Warns, ‘We Are Going Much Lower’

The excitement around Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has quieted down significantly. After hitting an incredible high of over $126,000 in October 2025, the price has been steadily dropping. According to new research, this downward trend, often called a bear market, is likely to continue for much longer than expected. Several experts now believe the true bottom of this cycle will not be reached until the final months of 2026.

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It Is a Waiting Game. Here’s Why Bottoms Take Time

Many new investors mistakenly believe that when a price drops sharply, it will jump right back up. However, historical data shows that market bottoms are not single events; they are long periods of uncertainty.

Crypto trader Darky recently pointed out on social media that while past bear markets have lasted roughly 365 days, we are only a few months into this current one. “We are going much lower, just a matter of time,” Darky warned.

Another group of researchers, CryptoQuant, suggests that looking at past patterns, the “sweet spot” for a final bottom usually clusters around September to November of 2026. This means investors may need to prepare for another year of price stagnation or decline.

Supply in Profit Shows Investors are Nervous

One of the most reliable indicators of a market bottom is a metric called “supply in profit.” This measures how many people holding Bitcoin bought it at a price lower than the current price. When this number drops, it means fewer people are making money, and more are feeling the pain of losses.

According to data, the supply in profit has dropped to levels not seen since the depths of the major crash in 2022. During that time, the bottoming phase lasted for about six months.

On-Chain College, a data analysis group, shared that Bitcoin has broken below a key psychological level known as the “Long-Term Holder True Cost Basis” (currently around $65,700). When the price stays below this line for a long time, it causes panic selling, which could push the price down to $42,000 or lower.

More Coins on Exchanges Mean More Selling Pressure

Another reason analysts are worried is the rising amount of Bitcoin sitting on trading exchanges. When Bitcoin is on an exchange, it is ready to be sold instantly.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the total amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has grown by about 1% over the last 45 days. “Until the reserve turns lower… structural selling pressure remains intact,” Adler explained. This simply means that as long as more people are preparing to sell than to buy, the price will have a hard time going up.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $65,899.99.

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