This obscure ETF may hold the key to whether the bull market lasts

One sign of whether the stock market will continue its bull run may come from the State Street Blackstone Senior Loan ETF (SRLN) , according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett. SRLN, which has $5.6 billion in assets , “seeks to provide current income consistent with the preservation of capital by normally investing at least 80% of its net assets in Senior Loans,” according to State Street. While the fund is not well known, it recently broke below its 200-day moving average. If it doesn’t recover, it could herald bigger declines in the stock market, Hartnett pointed out. Hartnett noted that breaks below the 200-day for SRLN preceded the big sell-off that took place around “Liberation Day” last April, the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020 and China’s currency devaluation about a decade ago. Stocks have been volatile lately as traders worry about potential blow-ups in private credit, major tech companies overspending on artificial intelligence and whether AI will take out entire industries — such as software. Direct lender Blue Owl Capital has tumbled more than 24% this year, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has lost 21%. AI poster child Nvidia is flat for the year, a far cry from its performance the past three years. Microsoft has also lost about 17% in 2026. When “key levels break,” Hartnett said, a market “event” is likely in the near future in the form of a “proper flush in risk assets.” An event may already be brewing. Stocks struggled Friday after the release of much hotter-than-expected January U.S. wholesale inflation data.