Is ETH exhausted from the fluctuations? Is there a chance for an upward breakout?

Recently, ETH’s performance has indeed been a bit exhausting—price fluctuating around 1.95K, bouncing back and forth between 2.06K and 1.94K within 24 hours, a typical pre-breakout scene. According to the latest market data, the overall trend has reached the end of the consolidation triangle, and the next directional choice is imminent.

Technical Signals at the End of the Consolidation Triangle

From the candlestick patterns, ETH has been trading within a clear consolidation range for several days. The upper limit is capped by the 24-hour high of 2.06K, and the lower support is at 1.94K. The entire range is less than $150 wide, indicating a tightening trend. This narrowing oscillation is a classic precursor to a breakout in either direction.

More notably, trading volume has significantly decreased during this process. Currently, the 24-hour volume is about $498.27 million, a clear decline from previous active levels, suggesting market participation is waning. This “volume contraction” often signals an impending breakout.

The Secrets Behind Volume Shrinkage and Liquidation Data

There’s an interesting contradiction hidden in the market structure: at the 2169 price level, there are accumulated $910 million worth of extremely high-priced short positions. These liquidation data are like a pile of fuel waiting to be ignited. But the key question is—why can’t the price break down through these dense short zones?

The logic behind this phenomenon is straightforward: the bears are already weak. If there were strong selling pressure, the price would have broken previous lows by now. Instead, the price remains sticky at higher levels, indicating that every time the bears attempt to push down, there are silent buy orders absorbing the sell pressure and quietly accumulating positions.

Why Can’t the Short Positions Push the Price Down?

This is the critical point for judging the subsequent direction. When there are no strong counterparty sell-offs downward, yet a mountain of high-priced short positions accumulates, there is only one outcome—the price will inevitably turn upward. Those accumulated $910 million in shorts are no longer a defensive line downward; instead, they become the “meat” for a short squeeze upward—every upward move forces these losing shorts to close, further driving the price higher.

Trading Strategy and Risk Management

Based on the combination of signals—end of the consolidation triangle + high-priced short accumulation + volume contraction—an upward short squeeze is a relatively high-probability event. If you want to participate in this scenario, here is a suggested execution framework:

Entry Plan:

• First: Open a small long position near the current 1.95K
• Second: If the price stabilizes above 2000 (confirmed by a 1-hour close above this level), decisively add to the position

Risk Control:

• Set stop-loss below 1.90K (previous lows + psychological threshold; if broken, exit)

Target Setting:

• First target: 2169 (liquidation dense zone, the area with 910 million shorts)
• Second target: Near previous highs (reduce positions gradually upon reaching, to avoid greed-driven pullbacks)

This market state of “getting tired and ready to change” is a typical sign of technical buildup for a new trend. But regardless of how thorough the analysis is, risk management always comes first.