Elon Musk makes another promise: Tesla will build a factory on the Moon in 20 years, and robots will make work "optional" within 10 years

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently released a detailed timetable for FSD entering Europe, new vehicle mass production, and humanoid robots in his latest interview. He also shared an ambitious vision of building a factory on the Moon within 20 years.

On February 27, Musk gave an in-depth interview to Andre Thierig, Senior Manufacturing Director at the Berlin Gigafactory. Amid the company’s recent earnings report and market focus on core revenue growth, order conversion, and future sustainability, Musk provided a comprehensive overview of Tesla’s business lines.

In addition to clarifying capacity expansion timelines, Musk emphasized the potential of artificial intelligence and autonomous driving to reshape business models, offering the market a vision of Tesla’s future 5 to 20 years ahead.

“Hold onto your Tesla stock—20 years from now, we will have a factory on the Moon.”

Facing market interest in Tesla’s long-term growth, Musk shared a highly personal long-term vision. When asked how people will evaluate Tesla in 10 to 20 years, Musk looked to space.

“In 20 years, I will say Tesla has a factory on the Moon. Actually, I see a very prosperous future for Tesla.”

Musk admits predicting 20 years ahead is difficult, but in the medium term, the company’s fundamentals are very clear:

“If you ask me about the next 5 to 10 years, I can be certain Tesla’s future is extremely bright. I want to say, hold onto your Tesla stock—it will be very valuable.”

The ultimate vision of Optimus: work becoming an “option” within ten years

As Tesla’s key to finding a second growth curve, humanoid robot Optimus is given high commercial expectations by Musk. He believes that in the long run, AI and robotics will fundamentally change human society’s production relations.

“In the long term, AI and robotics will make work an option. For example, within ten years or less, work could be optional. If you want to work, you can. Just like growing your own vegetables—you can choose to do it, and it might become a hobby.”

Musk admits no one has yet successfully built a truly useful humanoid robot. Tesla must start from scratch, designing the entire supply chain based on first principles of physics. He envisions a disruptive application scenario for Optimus:

“I believe ultimately Optimus could handle medical tasks, like becoming a surgeon and performing surgeries. In the long run, an Optimus surgeon would be outstanding—highly capable—and everyone in the world could receive better medical care than today’s standards.”

Regarding the future of the Berlin Gigafactory, Musk states that, assuming no external forces steer Tesla in the wrong direction, the factory will expand significantly to produce Cyber Taxis, Optimus, or Semi trucks, making it “Europe’s largest manufacturing complex.”

FSD coming to Europe: “Non-autonomous fuel cars will be like flip phones”

Subscription revenue and penetration of Full Self-Driving (FSD) have long been core valuation anchors for Tesla on Wall Street. Musk revealed the latest timeline for FSD rollout in Europe.

He emphasized that Tesla has the most advanced real-world AI:

“Authorities told us that approval in the Netherlands will come on March 20. We hope that date remains unchanged. When Europeans see how powerful Tesla’s AI driving capability is, they will be quite shocked.”

Musk promises that technically, Tesla can achieve “sleeping in the car and waking up at the destination” this year.

On competing with traditional automakers, Musk remains sharp, criticizing the overall lack of innovation in the industry and its strategic “dinosaur-like” trajectory.

He uses a classic analogy to define the future mobility market:

“In the future, if you’re driving a gasoline car that requires manual operation, it will feel like riding a horse or using a flip phone. Although some people will still ride horses, their numbers will be very rare. Non-autonomous vehicles will be very few, and internal combustion engine cars will have no place.”

Five factories to ramp up production this year, Cyber Taxis to mass produce by year-end

Regarding the market’s most concerned topics—product delivery and orders—Musk set the tone: this year is Tesla’s “big year” for capacity and new product launches.

On the highly anticipated Cybertruck, Musk provided a specific production timeline:

“We will start trial production in April and achieve mass production by the end of the year. If all goes well, we may also produce Cyber Taxis and Optimus robots in Europe.”

Additionally, the Semi heavy-duty truck is “hoping to enter Europe next year.”

Musk summarized this year’s capacity plan: “A lot will happen this year. Five factories will begin large-scale production, covering five main product lines.” Not only vehicles, but also lithium refining in Texas and nickel cathode material refining have started, with battery cell production accelerating.

Excerpts from Musk’s interview:

Andre Thierig
Welcome, Elon. Thanks for making time. I know your schedule is tight. Building a future with abundant material resources involves countless tasks, many of which I can’t even imagine. What are you focusing on now? SpaceX, Starlink, AI, safe future AI, autonomous driving, servers, etc. But personally, what excites you most about Tesla right now?

Elon Musk
Well, I think Tesla is one of the most exciting companies in the world. It might be the most exciting, but you know, SpaceX is also incredible. You could say they’re both top-tier companies. We’re obviously expanding production, making more cars. We’re launching Tesla Full Self-Driving, which is truly a car driven by AI. It’s Tesla’s AI software, driving like a human by observing the environment. So Tesla has the most advanced real-world AI, and we hope it will be approved in Europe soon. Authorities told us it will be approved in the Netherlands on March 20. That’s what I’ve been told, and I hope the date stays the same. When Europeans see how powerful Tesla’s AI driving is, they will be quite impressed.

Elon Musk
So, I think this year, from a technical standpoint, you can really achieve: sleeping in the Tesla and waking up at your destination. That’s very exciting. We also have the Optimus project, which will be the first truly useful humanoid robot. Sometimes you might ask, what’s the use? Who wouldn’t want their own, or even a better C-3PO and R2-D2? Imagine, would you want a robot to watch your kids, walk your dog, or care for elderly parents? Optimus can do these things. So, it’s very exciting.

Elon Musk
Yes, we will start production of Tesla Cybertruck at the Texas Gigafactory. We will have Cybertruck production, starting trial runs in April and reaching mass production by year-end. If all goes well, we may also produce Cyber Taxis and Optimus robots in Europe. We also have Tesla Semi, our heavy-duty truck, hoping to enter Europe next year. So much is happening.

Andre Thierig
Keeping a company this exciting is a long list of tasks.

Elon Musk
Yes, and also battery cell production. We will start producing battery cells at the Gigafactory, with Tesla’s lithium refinery in Texas and a nickel cathode material refinery in Austin already operational.

Elon Musk
Truly, a lot will happen this year. Five factories will begin large-scale production, covering five main product lines. We also look forward to expanding into Europe.

Andre Thierig
Looking back, Tesla has undoubtedly transformed the industry. I believe that if we hadn’t taken that step—if Tesla hadn’t boldly pushed for electrification of transportation—the industry wouldn’t be what it is today. How do you think people will evaluate Tesla in 10 or 20 years?

Elon Musk
In 20 years, I will say Tesla has a factory on the Moon. Actually, I see a very prosperous future for Tesla. Predicting 20 years ahead is tough, but I can be certain that in 5 to 10 years, Tesla’s future will be extremely bright. I want to say, hold onto your Tesla stock—it will be very valuable. That’s my view.

Andre Thierig
Amazing. Returning to the present, what’s your view on Europe’s industry, especially the automotive sector, and even German industry? Why do you think they are currently struggling?

Elon Musk
Well, I think it’s due to a lack of innovation. In automation? Sorry, overall innovation. The automotive industry has relatively low innovation. The cars they produce now are very similar to those from five years ago—little change. I’ve been saying for over 20 years that the auto industry needs to go electric. Even without environmental considerations, this is true. Electric vehicles are fundamentally a better architecture than gasoline engines. They are simpler, more efficient, quieter, and produce no pollution in cities. So, all ground transportation should be electric. I believe all ships, and eventually all aircraft, should be electric.

Elon Musk
But the auto industry has resisted electrification strongly. They drag their feet, relying on government push. And whenever there’s a chance to reduce EV production, they do so. That’s not a good strategy; it doesn’t make sense. Equally important is making vehicles capable of autonomous driving.

Elon Musk
I remember about ten years ago I said that in the future, any vehicle that isn’t electric and isn’t autonomous—if you’re driving a gasoline car that requires manual operation—it will feel like riding a horse or using a flip phone. That is, although some people will still ride horses, their numbers will be very small. Non-autonomous vehicles will be very few, and internal combustion engine cars will have no place.”

Andre Thierig
So it seems we shouldn’t, or even can’t, learn much from traditional automakers. It sounds like we should focus on ourselves and what we believe the future will look like, right?

Elon Musk
I mean, you can learn something from certain competitors, but strategically, they’re heading toward extinction. They’re not heading toward a good place. You know, dinosaurs are gone. We are definitely on a very different path. Like you said, electrification and autonomy are obvious to me, and have been for over 20 years. But what I’ve found in the auto industry is that they won’t steal our ideas. You can’t just force a good idea into their heads, understand? Like you said, “You have to accept this good idea,” but they won’t adopt it. We can’t even force-feed them our good ideas. That’s my personal experience. So we need to do things that are logical and reasonable. Tesla is fundamentally creating the future, and it’s a good future.

Andre Thierig
We are building the future; they are just making cars.

Elon Musk
Yes, that’s a good future. A future with electric cars that don’t emit toxic gases, are quiet, efficient, and as I said, autonomous. So you won’t be exhausted from traffic jams, driving in traffic. Sometimes people might sleep or face medical emergencies. If you’re driving yourself and have a seizure or heart attack on the highway, you could die. But if the car is autonomous, it can take you to the hospital. In fact, this has happened many times on Tesla cars, right?

Andre Thierig
That’s amazing. Specifically regarding the Berlin Gigafactory, we broke ground about six years ago and started production around four years ago. I have many memories, and I know you do too. When people ask about the Berlin Gigafactory and its staff, what do you most want to tell them?

Elon Musk
First, I want to thank everyone who helped build the Berlin Gigafactory. Thank you, Andre, and the entire team, because we built an incredible factory in a very short time, achieving large-scale production with good quality and cost control. I am very proud of the Berlin Gigafactory and everyone there.

Elon Musk
Thank you. Yes, it’s very cool. I also like the art there; people can find some joy in it. Going to work should be something to look forward to. Working with people you like, doing useful things, creating things. I have great respect for creators—those who truly make useful, loved products. Many people, I don’t know, don’t create or provide useful services. I deeply respect those who make things and provide useful services—they work honestly. So, thank you all.

Andre Thierig
I don’t know if you do, but if you have a vision for Berlin Gigafactory, what would it be? What needs to happen to realize it?

Elon Musk
Yes, ideally, we would significantly expand the Berlin Gigafactory’s capacity. We would also produce battery cells at scale, possibly also cathode and anode materials, and lithium. Achieve vertical integration and produce products like Cyber Taxis, Optimus, or future Tesla developments. So I see an exciting future of large expansion, taking on more projects.

Andre Thierig
Very cool. Do you have any advice for the Berlin team to help them work toward this vision?

Elon Musk
Well, if external organizations push Tesla in the wrong direction, it will make things much harder. If external forces steer Tesla wrongly, our expansion will be limited. It’s hard to say, if external groups complicate things, we might not expand. I say this honestly. It’s the truth. We won’t shut down factories, but realistically, we won’t expand either.

Andre Thierig
As I mentioned, I have some questions prepared. I’ll turn the tablet around—feel free to comment. Of course. Which factory is your favorite? Maybe Factory 4?

Elon Musk
You know, asking which factory I like most is like asking which child I prefer—unfair.

Andre Thierig
I know it’s a tricky question.

Elon Musk
The truth is, I love factories. Really, many people don’t love factories, and some even dislike them. But I walk every production line; I’m a huge factory enthusiast. I love factories.

Andre Thierig
So it’s a wonderful place.

Elon Musk
Yes, you produce products that people love and find useful. Making products people love is great.

Andre Thierig
Making products.

Elon Musk
The Berlin Gigafactory is a fantastic factory. The atmosphere there is cool. You walk in, it’s very clean, both inside and outside, and looks great. People seem quite happy. We’re making cars there, and some battery cells, hoping to do more in the future.

Andre Thierig
Yes, many things to be proud of.

Elon Musk
Yes, it’s a great factory. Honestly, I think it’s one of the coolest factories in the world. Hey, Elon, what new products will we produce next at the Berlin Gigafactory? Well, I think there are many exciting possibilities. What will be the next product made there?

Elon Musk
Yes, we’ve already started increasing battery cell production, and we will also expand Model Y production, especially after we get approval for full autonomous driving. From the next major product perspective, Tesla Cybertruck is the most likely. But it could also be Optimus or Tesla Semi. Tesla has many products coming soon. The potential is huge. If all goes well, I believe we will expand the Berlin Gigafactory to its maximum size.

Andre Thierig
You have a lot of room to grow.

Elon Musk
Yes, assuming support from authorities and the public, we will expand and possibly make it Europe’s largest manufacturing complex.

Andre Thierig
Very cool. That’s a very exciting future. Now, we have a question from Arkil, and it’s an interesting one.

Questioner 3
Elon, realistically, when do you think we’ll see Optimus in the Gigafactory so we won’t have to worry about ergonomics and related issues?

Elon Musk
Well, we will consider that carefully. I don’t want people to worry about their jobs. Long-term, AI and robotics will make work an option. For example, within ten years or less, work could be optional. If you want to work, you can. Just like growing vegetables—you can do it in your garden or buy from a store. Gardening is optional. Some choose to do it. Growing your own vegetables is extra work, but people enjoy it. Future work will be similar. Work will become a hobby.

Questioner 4
Yes, how can we ensure that new technologies like Optimus benefit third-world countries? I think that’s a very interesting question.

Elon Musk
Well, for Optimus, we first need to successfully create a useful robot. That’s very difficult. No one has yet built a truly useful humanoid robot. Then, you must make it useful and scale up production. That requires a whole new supply chain. For Optimus, we need to start from scratch, designing the entire robot based on first principles of physics, including every motor and gear. The hand design is particularly challenging—making a dexterous robot hand is one of the hardest engineering problems. So, we need at least a useful prototype first, then scale up. Initially, Optimus tasks will be simple, gradually becoming more complex.

Elon Musk
I believe ultimately, Optimus could handle medical tasks, like becoming a surgeon and performing surgeries. In the long run, everyone in the world could receive incredible medical care, better than what any human doctor provides today. So, in the future, Optimus as a surgeon will be outstanding—highly capable—and everyone could get better healthcare than today’s standards.

Questioner 5
Hey, Leon, what advice do you have for young people? I’d say, choose optimism and look forward to the future. I think choosing optimism, even if wrong, is better than choosing pessimism, even if right. Your quality of life will be much higher. So I encourage people to be excited about the future. I am excited about the future. I believe it will be very interesting. And I think it’s very likely to be great.

Elon Musk
For general advice, I suggest everyone learn as much as possible, read many books, try many things. I think, enjoy life. But work is also part of enjoying life.

Andre Thierig
So, a job that you truly enjoy.

Elon Musk
Yes, if you get satisfaction from creating things, Tesla is a great place because we create things and make useful products. That’s wonderful. What’s the most inspiring moment in your life? I think it’s the birth of my children—that’s the most inspiring moment. In terms of work, I’d say when Tesla produced the first mass-produced Roadster. That was incredible—we actually made a car that met all regulations and could legally be driven on the road. When we started, we didn’t even know how to make a car. In rockets, the first orbital launch was a huge relief. Getting a rocket back and landing it is also very cool.

Elon Musk
Autonomous driving is also amazing. It’s mind-blowing. When people first experience autonomous driving—just sitting there while the car takes them from home to work and parks—it’s revolutionary.

Andre Thierig
That’s true. I’ve used it in the US. It’s much better than people think.

Elon Musk
I think it’s like magic. Truly.

Andre Thierig
Great. Thank you very much for your time. Hope to see you again soon in Berlin and show you what we’ve accomplished since your last visit.

Elon Musk
Thanks again to everyone at the Berlin Gigafactory—keep working hard.

Andre Thierig
Thank you, Elon. Appreciate your time. It’s been a pleasure talking today.

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