Shenwan Hongyuan Futures: From a long-term perspective, the supporting factors for gold's upward movement have not reversed.

Recent sharp fluctuations in precious metals have been mainly influenced by two factors: the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair and a capital stampede. On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Woor to be the next Fed Chair. Woor’s traditional hawkish stance and his call for balance sheet reduction led to a cooling of rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, concerns about the Fed’s independence eased, causing the US dollar index to rise significantly. Previously, precious metals experienced a rapid short-term increase, with volatility already at high levels. Woor’s nomination acted as a trigger, prompting a large amount of profit-taking and a capital stampede out of leveraged positions, further amplifying market volatility. From a long-term perspective, the supporting factors for gold’s upward movement have not reversed. Once the market fully adjusts and new bullish factors accumulate, gold is expected to resume a steady upward trend. Due to silver’s higher volatility compared to gold and the current gold-silver ratio remaining relatively low, investors are advised to stay on the sidelines for now. (Shenwan Hongyuan Futures)