【$ETH Signal】1H Oversold Rebound Play, Watch for Short Squeeze and Capital Support

$ETH The 1H timeframe has entered an extremely oversold zone (RSI 30.35), with the price forming a short-term base around 1958. Although the 4H trend is downward, the current price has broken below the 4H EMA50 (1967), indicating a technical rebound need. The key point is: open interest (OI) remains stable during the sharp decline, and the funding rate is negative (-0.0073%), which is not typical of major players offloading, but more like long leverage liquidation, setting the stage for a potential short squeeze rebound. The order book shows deep buy-side concentration between 1957.8-1957.95, indicating support.

🎯Direction: Long (Long)

🎯Entry/Orders: Enter in batches around the current price 1958-1962, or wait for a breakout above 1965 to chase the long.

🛑Stop Loss: 1948 (below the recent 1H low of 1951.48, with buffer)

🚀Target 1: 1985 (1H EMA20 resistance, also a previous small platform)

🚀Target 2: 2008 (the starting point of the previous downward wave on the 1H level, a key psychological level)

🛡Trade Management:

- Position suggestion: Light position (Reason: The 4H trend remains bearish; this is a contrarian rebound play with higher risk)

- Execution strategy: After entering, if the price rebounds smoothly to Target 1 (1985), reduce position by 50% to lock in profits, and move the remaining stop loss to the entry price (break-even). If the price fails to break 1975 and weakens again, consider exiting early.

Deep logic: OI remains stable after a sharp decline, indicating no large-scale capital exit. Negative funding rate + firm price + concentrated buy-side depth form the classic “short squeeze” three elements. The 1H RSI is severely oversold, and a technical rebound is imminent. But beware, if the price effectively breaks below 1950 with declining OI, the rebound logic invalidates, and a strict stop loss is necessary.

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