U.S. Inflation Pressure Reemerges: PCE Index Hits Multi-Month High by the End of 2025

zkProofInThePudding · 2026-02-26T12:05:53+00:00

Federal Reserve commentator Nik Timiraos pointed out that by December 2025, the US PCE inflation index will rise significantly, with core PCE and overall PCE both showing increased inflationary pressures and reaching new highs annually. This indicates that US inflation is gradually rising, and the market should pay attention to its impact on policy and the economic landscape.

zkProofInThePudding

2026-02-26 12:05:53

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According to ChainCatcher, renowned Federal Reserve commentator Ник Тимираос recently pointed out that the PCE inflation index in the United States experienced a significant increase in December 2025, reflecting a new change in U.S. inflation trends. This trend indicates that U.S. inflation faced upward pressure at the end of last year, and the market needs to closely monitor how inflation developments will influence future policies.

The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) is one of the key indicators measuring U.S. inflation, and its fluctuations often attract high attention from markets and policymakers. The forecast involves two types of indicators—core PCE and total PCE—both of which reflect core and comprehensive inflation conditions. Their simultaneous rise suggests that inflationary pressures are relatively widespread.

Monthly Data Both Rise, Core Index Faces Increased Pressure

From month-to-month comparisons, both the core PCE and total PCE indices increased by 0.37% in December 2025. Excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the rise in core PCE indicates that underlying inflationary pressures are accumulating. Meanwhile, the concurrent increase in total PCE suggests that inflation is not limited to a specific sector but is showing a broader upward trend. This phenomenon typically complicates the adjustment of U.S. inflation policies.

Yearly Record High: Inflation Situation Warrants Attention

On an annual basis, the situation is even more noteworthy. The core PCE annual rate rose to 3%, the highest since February 2025. At the same time, the total PCE annual rate increased to 2.9%, reaching a new high since March 2024. This indicates that U.S. inflation experienced a clear rebound at the end of last year, signaling that inflationary pressures are gradually intensifying.

These data are significant for understanding the direction of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. A sustained increase in the annual rate often triggers chain reactions in interest rate policies and exchange rate markets. Therefore, market participants should closely follow subsequent data releases and Fed policy statements to better grasp the potential impact of U.S. inflation on the global economic landscape.

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