#深度创作营

This week (February 20-26, 2026), the cryptocurrency market experienced a strong rebound from its 2026 lows. Throughout February, the market remained in a "blood moon" atmosphere, with Bitcoin's monthly decline approaching 25%. However, in the latter half of the week, significant recovery occurred driven by macroeconomic positive news and capital inflows. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently stable around $2.35 trillion, up over 4% in 24 hours, with a net increase of 3-5% over the past week. Bitcoin's price briefly fell below the 2026 low of $63,000 at the start of the week, then oscillated back up to the $68,300–$68,600 range, ending the week with a modest gain of 1.5–2.5%.

Ethereum performed even better, rising from around $1,850 to between $2,053 and $2,065, with a seven-day increase of 5.4–7.8%, clearly outperforming the broader market. Layer 1 tokens such as Solana and Cardano, along with some meme coins, saw more pronounced gains during this rebound. The CoinDesk 20 index increased by approximately 5.28%, indicating that capital is shifting from Bitcoin's defensive stance toward higher-risk altcoins.

The core drivers of this week's rebound stem from multiple positive catalysts: firstly, a significant improvement in macro risk sentiment, with Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report boosting the US stock indices, especially the Nasdaq; secondly, partial rollback of tariffs by the Trump administration, with the 6-3 vote easing the major macro pressure since April 2025, and narrowing US-Japan yield spreads reducing the impact of yen carry trades. On the liquidity front, spot Bitcoin ETF saw a turnaround after five consecutive weeks of net outflows, with a single-day inflow exceeding $500 million on Wednesday, indicating institutional re-entry. XRP ETF fund flows also helped push its price above $1.37. Additionally, extreme fear (Fear & Greed index dropping to 16) earlier in the week triggered massive leveraged long liquidations, but subsequent short covering and retail buying created positive feedback, allowing technicals to quickly recover.

However, negative pressures remain. Overall, February still falls within a five-month downtrend since Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. Geopolitical tensions (such as US-Iran), some miners liquidating Bitcoin holdings, and noise from the UK FCA's stablecoin experiments and US regulatory investigations continue to pose potential constraints on the market.

From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin dominance remains around 58%, slightly high, indicating that capital still anchors in Bitcoin. However, altcoins have shown higher beta during this rebound, reflecting a gradual return of risk appetite. On-chain data shows stablecoins' market cap remains above $300 billion. Ethereum's active addresses and trading volume continue to rise following the Fusakai upgrade, and while options market skew remains somewhat defensive, funding rates have turned positive. Sector rotation favors AI+Layer 1 and meme coins, while DeFi and GameFi lag behind. Technically, Bitcoin's short-term support is at $65,000–$66,000, with resistance at $70,000–$72,000; Ethereum's support is at $1,900, resistance at $2,100–$2,200. Breaking above $70,000 would confirm a weekly reversal; otherwise, there remains a risk of a second bottom.

Overall, this week's rebound is a "oversold correction in a bear market" rather than a signal of a new bull market. Next week, key focus should be on the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting (with further delay in rate cuts), progress in resolving US government shutdown risks, and continued ETF inflows. If tariffs are fully eased and US stocks remain strong, total market cap could challenge $2.5 trillion; conversely, if US stocks pull back or geopolitical tensions escalate, a second bottom may occur. Short-term trading strategies could involve moderate long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with stop-losses set 5% below weekly lows, targeting $70,000 and $2,100 respectively. For medium to long-term, it is still advisable to focus on dollar-cost averaging into quality projects with strict position control. Given the high volatility of the crypto market, the above analysis is for informational purposes only.