Crypto Actualité: How Galaxy Research's Bold Bitcoin Forecast Shaped 2025 Market Expectations

Galaxy Research made headlines in late 2024 with an ambitious projection: Bitcoin would “test or best” $185,000 by Q4 2025, while Ethereum would climb above $5,500. However, as we enter 2026, the actual crypto market tells a different story. With Bitcoin trading around $68,600 and Ethereum at approximately $2,080, it’s worth examining the research firm’s analysis and understanding what shaped these predictions.

Institutional and Nation-State Adoption: The Catalyst for Growth

Galaxy’s report centered on a compelling thesis: institutional, corporate, and nation-state adoption would fuel cryptocurrency’s next leg up. The research firm predicted that five Nasdaq-100 companies and five nation states would announce Bitcoin additions to their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds during 2025. This level of macro adoption would represent a significant shift in how governments and large corporations view digital assets.

The report emphasized that competition among nations to accumulate Bitcoin reserves would drive a new wave of adoption, similar to how countries compete over gold reserves. Beyond governmental actions, Galaxy also forecasted that wealth management platforms would increase Bitcoin allocations to 2% or higher—a signal of mainstream institutional acceptance in the traditional finance sector.

DeFi Expansion and Market Infrastructure Scaling

Another key prediction involved the decentralized finance landscape. Galaxy anticipated that total Bitcoin locked in DeFi protocols would double from the then-current $11 billion level. Simultaneously, spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) were expected to surpass $250 billion throughout 2025, cementing digital assets’ place in traditional investment portfolios.

These infrastructure developments would provide the plumbing necessary for larger institutional flows and retail adoption at scale.

Mining Industry Transition Toward AI and Computing Power

Galaxy highlighted a significant industry pivot among miners. The firm predicted that more than half of the 20 largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies would announce strategic partnerships with artificial intelligence firms or hyperscalers (major cloud computing providers) by 2025. This reflects the industry’s recognition that surplus computing capacity could be monetized in the booming AI sector.

This transition could reshape Bitcoin mining economics, potentially attracting new investors to the sector while creating alternative revenue streams beyond pure mining rewards.

2026 Market Reality: Reassessing Galaxy’s Predictions

While Galaxy’s vision for institutional adoption and technological integration remains conceptually sound, the actual market performance reveals a significant gap between forecast and reality. Bitcoin’s current price of approximately $68,600 falls far short of the predicted $185,000, representing a nearly 63% shortfall from the target. Similarly, Ethereum at $2,080 trails the $5,500 projection by approximately 62%.

Several factors may explain this divergence. Macroeconomic conditions, regulatory uncertainties, and shifts in institutional risk appetite have created headwinds that Galaxy’s 2024 analysis may not have fully anticipated. Additionally, stablecoin supply dynamics and potential liquidation cascades have created fragmentation in the market rather than the unified upward trajectory the report envisioned.

This crypto actualité underscores how rapidly market conditions can shift in digital assets, even when fundamental adoption drivers remain intact. Galaxy Research’s framework regarding institutional and nation-state participation may ultimately prove prescient, but the timeline and magnitude of gains appear to have been significantly compressed from initial forecasts.