Zimbabwean ban sparks supply concerns, lithium carbonate breaks through 180,000 mark, listed companies respond intensively

The Zimbabwe government announced on February 25th an immediate suspension of all lithium ore exports. This unexpected policy shock disrupted the global lithium supply chain, fueling strong market expectations for higher lithium carbonate prices.

Boosted by the news, on February 26th, the main domestic lithium carbonate futures contract surged up to 12% intraday to 187,000 yuan/ton, but by the close, the gain narrowed to 3.47%, closing at 173,700 yuan/ton. Notably, the previous trading day’s close rose over 10%, marking the largest single-day increase since listing.

A-shares lithium mining concept sector also strengthened, with a maximum intraday increase of over 3%. Erlian Pharmaceutical rose over 12%, Keli Yuan and Jinyuan Shares gained 10%, while Salt Lake, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium also followed the upward trend.

Guotai Haitong Securities believes that this export ban will cause significant disruption to global lithium supply. With inventories already at low levels and five consecutive weeks of destocking, coupled with the post-Spring Festival demand recovery, short-term supply gaps are expected to support lithium carbonate prices. The firm forecasts that lithium prices will fluctuate strongly but remain relatively firm, maintaining an “accumulate” rating on the industry.

In response to the impact of the ban, Chinese mining companies with operations in Zimbabwe, such as Shengxin Lithium, Zhongkuang Resources, Tianhua New Energy, and Yahua Group, have issued statements.

The ban was implemented earlier than expected, covering in-transit goods

Guotai Haitong Securities notes that Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban was significantly advanced from the original schedule and exceeded expectations in enforcement.

On February 25th, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mining and Mineral Development issued an emergency statement, announcing an immediate halt to all mineral and lithium concentrate exports, including those currently in transit, with no specified timeline for resumption.

Under the new regulations, only companies holding valid mining rights and approved beneficiation plants are eligible to export. Proxy and third-party traders are prohibited. Applicants must submit recommendations from provincial mining authorities regarding beneficiation capacity and compliance, along with mineral composition reports. Violators face license revocation or mining rights cancellation.

The report traces the policy history: Zimbabwe has banned unprocessed lithium ore exports since 2022, announced plans in June 2025 to prohibit lithium concentrate exports starting January 2027, requiring mining companies to establish lithium salt smelting capacity locally. Since January 2026, illegal smuggling has been strictly investigated. This latest ban continues and accelerates a series of policies aimed at keeping the entire lithium resource processing and refining industry within the country, with ongoing supply disruptions likely. Currently, companies with lithium salt or lithium sulfate production capacity in Zimbabwe can still apply for lithium concentrate export licenses, and lithium sulfate products are also permitted for export.

Supply shocks should not be underestimated; brokerages forecast a bullish lithium market

Guotai Haitong reports that if the ban persists, lithium supply will tighten significantly. Coupled with five weeks of continuous inventory decline and accelerated destocking, the industry’s fundamentals will become more strained, supporting a bullish outlook for lithium prices.

From a fundamental perspective, lithium carbonate has already shown positive signals. From late January to February, SMM-calculated lithium carbonate inventories have declined for five consecutive weeks, with the destocking rate accelerating weekly, indicating an improving supply-demand balance. As post-holiday demand gradually recovers and demand from power batteries and energy storage systems begins to pick up, market consumption of lithium carbonate is expected to accelerate further. Looking ahead, demand driven by energy storage and power batteries will grow rapidly, while supply faces constraints from ongoing disruptions at key mines in Jiangxi and additional uncertainties overseas, likely maintaining a tight supply-demand pattern throughout the year.

In terms of scale, Zimbabwe, as Africa’s largest lithium exporter and China’s second-largest source of lithium concentrate imports, has a significant impact if supply is cut off. According to USGS data, Zimbabwe’s lithium resources are about 28,000 metric tons of metal in 2025, accounting for 10% of global production. China Customs data shows that in 2025, China imported approximately 1.2 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, representing 15.5% of total imports of 7.751 million tons, equivalent to about 120,000 to 148,800 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent.

Great Wall Securities estimates that in 2025, global lithium carbonate supply and demand will be approximately 2.1 million and 2.04 million tons respectively, already near a tight balance. Considering this ban, a shortfall of 37,000 to 57,000 tons could occur over the year. The firm believes that China’s lithium resource dependence is about 60%, so Zimbabwe’s supply disruption could pose a short-term raw material shortage risk for roughly 9% of domestic lithium salt production, potentially driving structural price increases in lithium carbonate.

Guotai Junan Futures estimates that in 2026, Zimbabwe will supply about 177,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, representing 8.1% of global resource supply. Due to geopolitical factors and resource localization, combined with tight fundamentals, lithium prices are expected to remain strong. Caixin Futures points out that tightening lithium concentrate supply will push prices higher, with lithium carbonate price elasticity amplifying, and lithium sulfate exports gaining an advantage, further raising industry chain prices and accelerating upstream and downstream integration.

In the medium to long term, Great Wall Securities believes that local processing will entail higher costs for energy, sulfuric acid, and logistics, providing a long-term cost support for lithium carbonate. Guotai Haitong Securities expects that as Chinese companies’ lithium sulfate capacity in Zimbabwe comes online, policy impacts will gradually be absorbed, but supply disruptions may persist until then.

Chinese mining companies respond with mixed strategies, some have pre-stocked

A-shares listed companies with lithium mining operations in Zimbabwe include Shengxin Lithium, Zhongkuang Resources, Tianhua New Energy, and Yahua Group, each responding differently to the ban.

A Zhongkuang Resources executive said on February 26:

“All Chinese lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe have stopped, awaiting further policy details. Currently, Chinese companies have little to no downstream processing products locally. The company is considering related industry chain extensions but cannot disclose details now.”

Yahua Group’s relevant person stated:

“The company has already shipped all lithium concentrate produced in Zimbabwe. Recently, the local ‘export suspension’ does not affect our production.”

The executive further added:

“According to the documents, traders and agents without mining or beneficiation qualifications in Zimbabwe are no longer eligible to export. However, Yahua Group can still apply for export permits by providing additional documentation, and the process is underway.”

Hua You Co., Ltd. responded that the Zimbabwe ban mainly targets illegal exports; their mining rights are issued by the local Ministry of Mining, and the impact remains uncertain.

Guotai Haitong Securities notes that this ban is expected to raise the entry threshold for Zimbabwe lithium exports and increase industry concentration. Traders without proper mining rights or licenses will be excluded, benefiting compliant Chinese mining companies in Zimbabwe.

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