Is BTC rebounding or reversing? Can DOT and FIL be shorted? How to capture the rotation in the altcoin sector?

BTC is rebounding as expected, currently consolidating around 68,000. Is this normal, or should we stick to our previous view? Currently, this is the second wave of BTC's downward trend rebound, with a target of around 75,000. This position is calculated based on the previous first wave of decline from 80,000 to 98,000. Overall, the largest rebound in a bear market is about 25%.
This time, a short-term bottom at 60,000 makes a mid-term rebound to 75,000 quite reasonable.
For our trading approach, we have reduced BTC and ETH long positions by 60%, and the remaining positions are still held, mainly trading contracts with a medium to long-term focus, following trend movements. For example, today BTC pulled back from 68,500 to around 67,500—a $1,000 fluctuation. Many would love to short during such moves, but I wonder, is that really interesting? This kind of fluctuation isn't even enough to cover transaction fees.
If you're investing, and the person teaching you isn't a scammer or trying to earn commissions by tricking you, they'll tell you a basic principle:
Reduce the number of trades as much as possible!
Warren Buffett also said that you should ideally buy and sell only 20 or 30 times in your lifetime—no more.
If you trade repeatedly and frequently, your money will ultimately be drained by fees and commissions.
Only scammers encourage frequent trading, especially in the crypto space, even guiding you to trade contracts often.
Encouraging frequent trading is even worse.
Wall Street traders know that the fate of frequent trading is either being drained or getting liquidated.
So, from a long-term perspective, has the market reversed?
Clearly not. Currently, this is just a rebound after BTC's second wave of decline from 98,000 to around 60,000.
Looking at the 10-year chart, I am definitely bullish, expecting a long-term bull market.
On the 1-year chart, 2026 will be a bear market, and 2027-2029 will be bull markets. Simple and clear.
On the monthly and weekly charts, the consolidation range still needs to shake out, between 60,000 and 72,000.
Today’s afternoon movement indicates that the short-term downward trend has basically ended, and the next target is the 70,000 to 72,000 range.
So, at every moment, on different timeframes, the trend points in one direction.
ETH's movement is highly correlated with BTC; there's nothing particularly special to say. In the short term, watch the support around 2000, and resistance near 2200. Just follow BTC's trend.
SOL is currently the strongest among mainstream coins, showing a solid comeback. But don’t worry about missing out; always align your actions with your knowledge.
Today, DOT led the gains, making a strong comeback. Can we short it? I think it's better to wait. DOT likely still has a second wave ahead. From 2024 to 2025, DOT hasn't risen much, and the project team has been laying low. The recent halving in March suggests there could still be a mid-term rally.
Gavin Wood previously proposed a complete overhaul of DOT's issuance mechanism, introducing a fixed cap and biennial halving. Recently, Polkadot announced a halving on March 14th plus a total supply cap of 2.1 billion. DOT will halve its annual issuance on March 14, 2026, from 120 million to 55 million DOT. Every two years, issuance will decrease by about 26%, eventually reaching the fixed cap of 2.1 billion DOT before 2160.
FIL's circulating supply (inflation) increased by 3,607,645 FIL in 10 days (about 360,000 FIL daily on average; current block rewards are 85,235 FIL, with a maximum circulating supply of 709,532,938). Such a rapid dilution means that if the price doesn't fall, it's almost like a gain. If you must buy this coin, wait until September 2026, betting on the possibility after October 14, 2026, when daily dilution will drop to 60,000, effectively a 6-fold deflation. By then, the total circulating supply could exceed 40%. If luck is on your side and the ecosystem lands, there might still be some imagination space.
Today, let's talk about how to catch the sector rotation in altcoins.
PEPE, about a week ago, when BTC rebounded to around 70,000, surged 30% in a single day, topping the gainers list. So, coins that have already surged or exploded sharply in the short term don't need too much attention now. Similarly, HYPE PUMP, which previously surged early, follows the same logic. We can look for some coins with market heat that haven't surged much before.
This year's hot sector is undoubtedly AI, both inside and outside the community. So I keep emphasizing VIRTUAL—buy, buy, buy VIRTUAL.
Every rebound, VIRTUAL has topped the gainers list. That’s the importance of catching hot sectors. The hot sector in 2026 will undoubtedly be AI. Follow this main line, pick the right coins, and you're halfway to success.
What other altcoins might have a rebound potential? You can pay attention to SUI and XRP—they have volume and price, and their K-line charts look very promising.
Additionally, the stablecoin sector's ENA has also been hit hard. You can consider short-term trading for about 15% profit and then exit. There will be unlocks around March 5th this month, so only short-term trading is recommended.
That’s all for short-term market analysis. The market trend is a continuous cycle.
Set your alarm clock—bear market dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin, hold for 3 years, and just wait to collect profits.
Making money is that simple; most people just don’t want to believe it.
The crypto bear market is here, and there are 226 days left until the end of this cycle.
Hope you follow me to get through this tough bear market, and when the next bull market arrives, I hope we are both in it. #深度创作营