Gold prices to hit $6,300 by end of year, says JPMorgan

Pound, gold and oil prices in focus: commodity and currency check, 26 February 

Pedro Goncalves · Finance Reporter, Yahoo Finance UK

Thu, 26 February 2026 at 6:30 pm GMT+9 4 min read

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Gold (GC=F)

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday morning, even as JPMorgan forecast that the precious metal could climb to $6,300 an ounce by the end of next year.

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Gold futures (GC=F) fell 0.4% to $5,203.80 a troy ounce, while spot prices slipped 0.3% to $5,175.95 at the time of writing. Spot gold has risen about 20% this year and touched a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce on Tuesday. The metal reached a record $5,594.82 on 29 January.

Analysts attributed the underlying strength to a combination of geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty. “Iran-US persisting tensions and the uncertainty surrounding the global economy with [president Donald] Trump’s tariffs are a bullish catalyst,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa, external analyst at Swissquote.

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The latest gains follow a surge of more than 64% in 2025 for the metal, which is widely regarded as a safe-haven investment.

JPMorgan said it remains firmly bullish on gold (GC=F) through 2026, citing a continuing structural diversification trend into the asset class with further room to run. The bank forecasts sufficient demand from central banks and investors this year to push prices to $6,300 an ounce by the end of 2026.

Gold (GC=F) has notched multiple record highs over the past year, supported by geopolitical risks, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate easing cycle, central bank purchases and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Lower interest rates typically enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Bank of America (BofA) said in a separate note that it sees a pathway for gold (GC=F) to reach $6,000 an ounce over the next 12 months.

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F)

Oil prices inched up on Thursday as investors gauged whether US-Iran talks could avert a military conflict that risks supply disruptions, though gains were capped by a build in US crude inventories.

Brent crude (BZ=F) futures rose 0.2% to $70.84 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) climbed 0.15% to $65.52 at the time of writing. Earlier this week, brent touched its highest level since 31 July, as Washington moved military assets into the Middle East in an effort to pressure Iran into negotiating an end to its nuclear and ballistic missile programme.

“Investors are focusing on whether military conflict will be averted in the US-Iran negotiations,” Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, told Reuters.

Tazawa added that even if hostilities were to erupt, provided the targets were limited and the conflict short lived, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) would probably spike temporarily above $70 a barrel before retreating to the $60 to $65 range.

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Analysts at ING said the outcome of the latest round of nuclear discussions would be decisive for the market. “The outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks today will be key to the direction of oil prices … A constructive resolution would likely prompt the market to gradually unwind as much as a $10 per barrel risk premium, which we believe is currently priced in,” they wrote in a note on Thursday.

“If talks break down, the upside risk remains, but the market may hold off on a full reaction until the scale of potential US action against Iran becomes clearer.”

Pound (GBPUSD=X, GBPEUR=X)

Sterling weakened against its major peers on Thursday as traders increased bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in March.

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The pound was lower against the dollar, down 0.2% to $1.3523 and the same versus the euro, trading at €1.1453.

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, was muted at 97.70.

The greenback has struggled amid continued uncertainty over White House economic policy. In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump said the US economy was rebounding, defended tariffs as supportive of growth and criticised the Supreme Court for striking down part of his tariff policy.

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In the UK, investors are positioning for a possible easing of monetary policy as labour market conditions soften and inflationary pressures cool.

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, told parliament’s Treasury Committee that a March rate cut remains “a genuinely open question,” noting that services inflation stood at 4.4% in January, above the bank’s 4.1% projection. Chief economist Huw Pill urged caution, warning policymakers against being “beguiled” by headline inflation easing towards the 2% target.

In equities, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was higher on Thursday morning, up 0.2% to 10,823 points, a fresh record high.

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