Why The Internet Adoption Curve May Overestimate Crypto's Path to 5 Billion Users

The comparison between internet adoption and crypto adoption has become almost ubiquitous in blockchain circles. That tantalizing chart—showing how the internet grew from virtually zero users in 1990 to 5 billion today across 33 years—fuels bullish projections. If crypto follows a similar internet adoption curve, the reasoning goes, we could see 5 billion users by 2047. But this appealing narrative overlooks some hard truths about how people actually adopt new financial technologies.

The math seems seductive. Internet penetration now stands at 62.5% of the global population. If crypto replicates that trajectory at the same pace, reaching 5 billion users would take roughly the same timeframe. Factor in projected population growth, and you might argue for 6 billion users by mid-century. These forecasts make for compelling PowerPoint slides at industry conferences, but they rest on a fundamentally flawed premise: that crypto operates in the same adoption ecosystem as the internet.

The Compelling But Flawed Comparison

The internet adoption curve analysis ignores a critical distinction. The internet became essential infrastructure. It wasn’t optional—it evolved to serve everything from communication to commerce to entertainment to healthcare. For the average consumer, the internet transformed from curiosity to necessity within a generation.

Crypto, by contrast, occupies a narrower space in most people’s lives. For institutional players and enthusiasts, digital assets represent genuine utility and investment opportunity. For mainstream consumers, crypto remains either a speculative play or an alternative payment method. That’s a fundamentally different value proposition than what drove billions to adopt email, browsers, and eventually smartphones.

Real-World Adoption Patterns Reveal Obstacles

To build a realistic framework, consider what actually happened with comparable financial technologies. The results are sobering.

Mobile Banking serves as an instructive case. The technology was introduced through text-message banking in 1997 and the first dedicated mobile app appeared in 2007. That’s nearly two decades before the smartphone revolution. Yet as of 2021, McKinsey reported that only 52% of North American bank customers, 47% of Western Europeans, and 45% of Central Europeans actively used mobile banking. A 2023 Cornerstone Advisors report found that just 56% of checking account holders are active mobile banking users. Even more telling: only 76% of the global population holds a bank account at all.

Stock Investing presents a similar picture. Gallup reports that 61% of Americans say they own stock—but Pew Research notes that only 35% of Americans own stock outside retirement accounts. First-time investors typically need personal touchpoints; Chase noted that 85% of first-time investors came through banker referrals, not through self-directed digital adoption.

Consider the timelines. The New York Stock Exchange opened in 1792—over 230 years ago—yet active stock market participation among Americans remains below 35%. Mobile banking has been available for 26 years and hasn’t achieved 50% adoption even in developed nations with high banking penetration.

A More Realistic Timeline for Crypto Growth

These data points suggest something crucial: people take decades—often multiple decades—to adopt what financial professionals consider basic infrastructure. Crypto is substantially more complex than mobile banking. It requires understanding of wallets, private keys, smart contracts, and market volatility. The learning curve is steeper. The risks feel more abstract.

The comparison to the internet adoption curve, while intellectually elegant, assumes conditions that may not apply to crypto. The internet had clear, immediate utility for communication and information. Crypto’s utility for most mainstream users remains contested and evolving. Regulation remains uncertain. Established financial systems continue to innovate and adapt.

Taking a bottom-up approach based on actual financial technology adoption rates, a more conservative estimate suggests crypto might reach between 2 billion and 3 billion users by 2047—roughly half the bullish projections. That’s still massive growth from today’s roughly 200-300 million users worldwide. But it reflects the reality that financial innovation adoption follows friction-filled paths, not smooth exponential curves.

The internet adoption curve provides an inspiring frame of reference. But crypto’s path will likely prove more constrained by the same forces that have limited even the most successful financial technologies: behavioral resistance, regulatory uncertainty, and the surprising stickiness of existing systems.