Personal Opinion: Bitcoin Will Not Experience Another Black Swan Event

My personal view is that the likelihood of a “black swan” event causing Bitcoin to completely collapse at this moment is very low. The market seems to be… waiting for the worst to happen to Bitcoin right now.
Common scenarios mentioned include:

• MicroStrategy defaulting on debt, forcing large-scale BTC sell-offs.
• Quantum computers breaking the network’s cryptographic algorithms.
• The fundamental value of Bitcoin being discredited, bringing its price to zero.

But from a financial history perspective, one clear point emerges:
Bitcoin has repeatedly ranked among the top 10 largest assets by market capitalization, competing directly with traditional corporations and assets. Historically, assets that have entered the global top market caps multiple times often become part of the global financial structure.
Once positioned at the “asset infrastructure” level, the probability of dropping to zero in the short term is nearly zero.

This is Not a Collapse, But Cyclical Volatility
If we take Bitcoin’s average annual volatility around 40%, then:
Square root of 0.6 years ≈ 0.7740% × 0.77 ≈ 31%
This means that over 0.6 years, a reasonable fluctuation based on statistics is about 31%.
With the current price around $63,000:
A 31% drop would bring the price to approximately $44,000.
This range closely matches the $40,000–$50,000 zone I previously estimated.
This indicates:
This is not a “system failure” scenario.
It’s just a normal correction phase within a high-volatility cycle.

Market Psychology and the “Black Swan” Trap
When the entire market talks about extreme risks, those risks often don’t materialize immediately.
Bitcoin has experienced:

• Bans in many countries
• Collapse of major exchanges
• Tightening interest rate cycles
• Bankruptcy of numerous funds and organizations

Yet, the network still operates. Hashrate continues to grow. Institutional capital still flows back cyclically.
Financial markets don’t collapse because of obvious risks. They usually adjust due to the structure of cash flows, liquidity, and expectations.

More Plausible Scenario
A more likely scenario is:

• From now until the end of the year: continued oscillation within a range, possibly a shakeout back to $40k–$50k.
• A clearer structural shift may form only at the end of the year.

Strategies During This Phase:

• At high prices: prioritize defense, consider short-term trades based on technical signals.
• Keep stablecoins on hand to observe during volatile periods.
• When Bitcoin drops to the $5x,xxx range or lower: gradually deploy capital using a DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy.

Conclusion
Bitcoin is not facing a destructive collapse.
It is simply moving in line with the characteristics of a high-volatility asset:
Strong rise – deep correction – trend restructuring.
In this market, the key isn’t predicting a “black swan” correctly, but managing risks and maintaining positions until the cycle turns again.
Those who survive the volatility will be the ones who can capitalize on the trend.