U.S. stocks, all indices plummeted

U.S. Eastern Time Monday, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed down more than 1%. At the close, the S&P 500 fell 1.04% to 6,837.75; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.13% to 22,627.27; the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.66% to 48,804.06.

Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic’s latest statement shook the market, causing IBM’s stock price to record its worst single-day performance in over 25 years, plunging 13.15 at the close.

In the early hours of Monday Beijing time, gold prices surged strongly, reaching a high of $5,249.97 per ounce. After a sharp drop during trading, prices rebounded and fluctuated, currently at $5,238.06 per ounce.

Major U.S. stock indices all close down over 1%

On Monday, U.S. Eastern Time, the three major stock indices all closed down over 1%. The S&P 500 fell 1.04% to 6,837.75; the Nasdaq dropped 1.13% to 22,627.27; the Dow declined 1.66% to 48,804.06.

A weekend report went viral among investors, intensifying concerns about AI.

Citrini Research released the “2028 Intelligent Crisis” report, detailing potential risks of AI technology to employment and tech companies, and its possible impact on the global economy. It hypothesizes that by 2028, AI could cause large-scale white-collar unemployment, reduced consumer spending, software-related loan defaults, and economic contraction.

Following the report, stocks in delivery, payments, and software sectors all declined, with the financial sector leading the drop in the S&P. By the close, most companies mentioned in the report fell. Notably, food delivery platform DoorDash and Blackstone dropped over 6%, American Express fell over 7%.

JonesTrading Chief Market Strategist Michael O’Rourke said, “This is a shocking market reaction. I’ve seen this market show remarkable resilience in the face of real negative news; but now, a completely fictional piece has directly sent the market into a sharp decline.”

In individual stocks, Nvidia rose 0.91%, Apple gained 0.60%, Google-A fell 1.11%, Microsoft dropped 3.21%, Amazon declined 2.3%, TSMC fell 0.13%, Meta dropped 2.81%, Broadcom declined 0.69%, Tesla fell 2.91%, Berkshire Hathaway-A declined 0.84%, Walmart rose 2.29%.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.95%. At the close, Alibaba fell 1.08%, Pinduoduo rose 0.78%, NetEase dropped 1.76%, JD.com declined 0.66%, Baidu fell 1.42%, Ctrip dropped 3.01%, Li Auto rose 0.82%, Futu Holdings fell 5.55%, Bilibili declined 1.55%, NIO rose 4.73%.

IBM’s worst single-day performance in 25 years

On Monday, U.S. Eastern Time, IBM’s stock experienced its worst single-day decline in over 25 years, closing down 13.15%.

Earlier, AI startup Anthropic announced that its Claude Code tool can assist in modernizing COBOL.

IBM’s stock has already fallen 27% since February, potentially marking the largest monthly decline since at least 1968.

COBOL, short for Common Business-Oriented Language, is a programming language developed in the late 1950s, dominant in business data processing, widely used in payment processing and retail transaction systems. Anthropic states that about 95% of ATM transactions in the U.S. use COBOL, making it a key area for AI-driven disruption at lower costs.

Anthropic said Monday that Claude Code can automate the most complex exploration and analysis tasks involved in COBOL modernization. In a blog post, they wrote:

“Historically, modernizing COBOL systems often required many consultants and years to streamline workflows. Tools like Claude Code can automate much of the exploration and analysis phase, which typically accounts for most of the work in COBOL modernization.”

Most large mainframes running COBOL are manufactured by IBM. Market analysis suggests this sell-off makes IBM the latest company under pressure due to fears that AI will dampen growth prospects for traditional enterprises.

A significant portion of IBM’s revenue still comes from its mainframe business, which runs some COBOL-based applications on large, client-owned servers. These mainframes are favored by clients with strict reliability requirements, such as financial institutions and government agencies.

Anthropic claims that Claude Code can help modernize COBOL codebases by analyzing dependencies among thousands of lines of code, documenting workflows, and identifying potential risks—tasks that would take human analysts months to complete.

US media: US military generals worry about prolonged conflict if striking Iran

According to Xinhua News Agency citing Axios on the 23rd, U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley warned President Trump that military action against Iran could carry significant risks and potentially entangle the U.S. in a long-term conflict.

Two sources told Axios that Milley fully supported the January military operation in Venezuela but was more cautious regarding Iran. He believes that large-scale military action against Iran would be riskier, more prone to entanglement, and could result in U.S. casualties.

One source said Milley, while not advocating for military strikes against Iran, would support and execute any decision made by Trump. He is not opposed to military action but remains sober and pragmatic about the chances of success and the consequences of initiating conflict.

The report also states that Vice President Vance has expressed doubts about the risks and complexities of attacking Iran but denies opposing military plans. Secretary of State Blinken remains cautious, neither strongly advocating for nor explicitly opposing strikes.

Previously, on the 18th, Trump held a meeting in the White House Situation Room to discuss plans to strike Iran, attended by Vance, Blinken, Milley, and CIA Director Ratcliffe.

A new round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled for the 26th in Geneva, Switzerland. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to exert military pressure on Iran, threatening strikes. The U.S. has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, with a second group expected to arrive soon.

Institutions monitor gold prices after the holiday

During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the international gold market experienced a strong trend of initial fluctuation followed by a sharp rally.

Gushen Fund researcher Bi Mengni told Shanghai Securities News that two main factors influenced gold prices during the holiday: first, a sharp increase in geopolitical risks. Tensions in the Middle East persisted, with U.S. aircraft carriers approaching Iran, escalating fears of regional military conflict, leading to a large influx of safe-haven funds into gold. Second, sudden disruptions in U.S. trade policies. During the holiday, policy uncertainties intensified global trade and inflation concerns, putting pressure on the dollar’s credit.

“Gold prices fluctuated and then rose again mainly because of safe-haven demand amid geopolitical conflicts and trade policy uncertainties, prompting funds to shift from risk assets to the safe, risk-free asset of gold. Additionally, the monetary cycle provides underlying support—expectations of rate cuts suppress the dollar and real interest rates, reducing the cost of holding gold, which is a core macroeconomic driver of the rally,” Bi said. He added that central banks’ continued gold purchases, the peak season for physical gold consumption during the Spring Festival, and limited supply growth of mined gold create a supply-demand balance that drives prices higher.

Since the beginning of the year, as international gold prices have fluctuated, domestic gold ETF funds have also seen frequent movements. Data shows that during the sharp decline at the end of January, large inflows of funds entered gold ETFs for “bottom-fishing.” Subsequently, some profits were taken during the week, but in the last week before the holiday, net inflows resumed.

Liu Tingyu, fund manager of Yongying CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry ETF, told Shanghai Securities News that the recent surge in gold prices has attracted more short-term trading funds, and rapid inflows and outflows have increased volatility. After the quick rise and fall, the long-term fundamentals of gold’s financial, monetary, commodity, and safe-haven attributes remain unchanged. The long-term allocation logic persists, but each big surge may also amplify volatility.

“After the holiday’s rapid rally, there may be profit-taking pressure. Short-term, gold is expected to fluctuate at high levels; medium-term, it may continue to oscillate upward with limited pullbacks. Overall, a pattern of limited corrections and a rising center of gravity is likely, making a trend reversal unlikely. Post-holiday, the market may revert from impulsive gains to a slow upward trend driven by data and policy, with further upside potential after some consolidation,” Bi concluded.