How will A-shares perform after the Spring Festival holiday? What are the main investment themes? Top ten brokerage strategies are here

Cailian Press, February 23 (Editor: Li Wei) The top ten brokerage firms’ latest strategic insights are now available, detailed as follows:

CITIC Securities: Price increases remain one of the core investment themes in Q1

Our annual strategy framework is based on China’s “resource + traditional manufacturing pricing power revaluation” as the foundation. The core logic for allocation is that China has a clear market share advantage, overseas capacity reset costs are high or difficult, and supply elasticity is somewhat influenced by domestic policies. Based on this, we allocate to chemical, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and new energy sectors, while increasing positions in undervalued insurance and brokerage firms (exposing some low-valuation factors), and expanding exposure to consumer chains (duty-free, airlines, hotels, scenic spots, freshly brewed tea drinks, etc.) and real estate chains (quality developers, building materials, REITs, etc.). The key is optimism that the market will shift from extreme divergence last year to moderate diffusion this year, with mild recovery in domestic demand and prices. Despite sharp fluctuations in precious metals, commodities, Kevin Wash’s nomination, the rebound of the US dollar index, and significant adjustments in cryptocurrencies and overseas small-cap tech stocks in early February, the fundamental configuration remains unaffected. Price increases are the most direct catalysts and trading signals within this framework. Currently, resource, traditional manufacturing, energy, service consumption, and real estate-related industries are essentially fortress assets unaffected by generative AI shocks.

GF Securities: A-shares will enter the “spring agitation” phase with the highest success rate

Historically, February and the period around the Spring Festival are the most intense phases of spring market volatility. The market has a high success rate, with small-cap stocks outperforming. For example, the small-cap index has a 100% probability of rising between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, and an 87.5% chance of rising in February. The “spring agitation” rally is not driven by “speculating on small caps” or unrelated to earnings. Since 2019, the correlation between the spring rally gains and the quarter-one report and its sequential growth rate has strengthened. Based on 2026 annual report forecasts and Q1 outlooks, we suggest focusing on industries such as storage, lithium battery equipment/materials, overseas computing power, non-bank financials (brokerages, insurance), and computer software, which either maintain optimistic outlooks or show signs of turnaround. Additionally, some thematic trends or turnaround expectations linked to industry cycles may perform well even without Q1 reports, similar to last year’s spring rally in robotics. Potential directions this year include ByteDance’s supply chain (Spring Festival streaming investments, AI applications, domestic computing power), robotics, and space photovoltaics.

Guojin Securities: Focus on the key theme of physical assets globally versus Chinese assets

The core of market style rebalancing is not whether there is an AI bubble, but how AI’s macro impact interacts with monetary policy and major country strategies. The main contradictions are shifting, with shortages moving to different segments. For commodities, after high volatility in earlier prices, industry pricing will be more driven by real demand than monetary factors; gold, as a risk hedge, is expected to provide solid protection amid renewed concerns over US debt sustainability. Recommendations include: 1) Revaluation of physical assets shifting from liquidity and dollar credit to low inventory and demand stabilization in industries like copper, aluminum, tin, crude oil, shipping, rare earths, and gold; 2) China’s export chain of equipment with global comparative advantages at cycle lows—power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, wafer manufacturing—and domestically bottoming sectors such as petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, and titanium dioxide; 3) Capital inflows, easing of balance sheet shrinkage, and inbound trends supporting consumption recovery—airlines, duty-free, hotels, food and beverages; 4) Non-bank financials benefiting from market expansion and bottoming of long-term asset returns.

Industrial Securities: Emphasize recovery opportunities in export chains after tariff reductions

Given that the current price increases driven by supply-demand improvements are more structural, sectors with sustained price rises are likely to be midstream materials and manufacturing. The fundamental driver is supply-demand gap; sectors with existing gaps will see more sustainable price increases. In the supply chain, the current cycle’s gaps first appeared in emerging industries and “anti-involution” beneficiaries like midstream materials (chemicals, steel, building materials) and manufacturing (TMT, high-end manufacturing). Downstream consumer manufacturing related to domestic demand remains balanced, while upstream resources related to real estate still face oversupply. Therefore, sectors with more sustainable price increases are likely to be in midstream materials and manufacturing. For upstream resources and downstream consumer sectors closely linked to domestic demand and real estate, future supply-demand improvements need to be monitored for smooth transmission. Pay attention to opportunities in export chains after tariff reductions, especially in light industry, home appliances, consumer electronics, batteries, auto parts, and medical devices, which have high US revenue exposure and significant capacity or trade re-exports in ASEAN regions with previously high tariffs.

Guotai Haitong Securities: Policy uncertainty re-emerges, gold performs better

Market expectations are that the Supreme Court may overturn tariffs, while the White House seeks alternative solutions. Volatility in the US dollar and US Treasuries has increased but remains limited. For Trump, the IEEPA provides more bargaining chips than the Section 232 and 301 tariffs. The focus is on how to patch existing tariffs, and if new patches are less effective than IEEPA, Trump may seek more aggressive policy tools, reintroducing policy uncertainty and favoring gold.

Donghai Securities: Watch for post-holiday commodity replenishment, remain optimistic on tech applications

Post-holiday, commodities are replenishing inventories, with continued optimism on tech applications. During the Spring Festival, overseas markets surged, with crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum prices rising. Crude oil hit six-month highs amid US-Iran tensions; copper prices peaked then retreated due to rising inventories and oversupply signals. Focus on domestic demand recovery after the holiday. US economic growth in Q4 2023 was below expectations, and in February, US demand and supply chains were impacted by extreme weather. Overseas demand may face pressure. Monitor capital flows and risk appetite’s impact on commodity prices; capital may still favor US Treasuries. Asset allocation suggestions include tech applications, especially semiconductor equipment and AI; long-term supply-demand improvements in chemicals, focusing on pesticides, dyes, and synthetic fibers; and accelerated biotech M&A, with a positive outlook on Hong Kong stock connect’s innovative drug sector.

CITIC Construction Investment: Quantum technology benefits from policy and technological catalysts

Quantum tech is gaining momentum from both policy and technological advances. On February 3, MIIT listed it alongside 6G, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen energy as future core industries, promoting R&D and application via a new national system. On February 13, Nature published China’s major achievement—an integrated photonic quantum chip-based large-scale quantum key distribution network supporting 20 chip users with a network span of 3,700 km, leading internationally in user scale and networking. New energy is driven by policy; on February 11, the State Council issued a document aiming to establish a nationwide unified electricity market by 2030, breaking regional barriers, improving green certificates and trading, and involving “Sand, Gobi, and Desert” renewable bases in the market. In sectors, increased capital expenditure by AI giants boosts segments like liquid-cooled servers, optical modules, and storage chips; chemical sector valuation recovery is underway.

Tianfeng Securities: Opportunities from AI industry revolution in computing power, storage, electricity, and applications

Based on economic recovery and market liquidity, investment themes can be simplified into three directions: 1) AI revolution-driven opportunities in computing, storage, electricity, and applications; 2) internal and external resonance, gradual economic recovery, with “stronger for the strong” style in the bull market, with some performance in later cycles; 3) probabilistic thinking, considering style rotation and bottom reversal possibilities. Industries with a higher chance of outperforming after underperformance for three years include food & beverages, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, social services, and biotech. Progress in AI depends on breakthroughs in applications and consumer sectors, with a focus on AI giants’ deployment. Early-stage bull markets favor a few high-growth sectors; later, capital concentrates on main themes, making new gains harder. Cyclical stocks, with low valuations and high beta, tend to perform well as fundamentals improve, attracting incremental funds.

Zheshang Securities: Partial opportunities likely in AI applications with overseas counterparts and in robot sectors linked to Spring Festival Gala

The probability of trend-based opportunities in A-shares opening after the holiday is low; short- to medium-term may see mild volatility. Partial opportunities are likely in AI applications with overseas counterparts and robots linked to the Spring Festival Gala. From a quarterly perspective, we remain optimistic about a “systematic slow bull.” For allocation, based on “mixed strong oscillation, holding positions and observing,” we suggest: timing-wise, favor short-term cautiousness, waiting for opportunities; medium-term, maintain a “systematic slow bull” approach. Sector-wise, focus on relatively undervalued securities, building materials, banks, and in the short term, AI applications and robotics. Stock-wise, prioritize those lagging since the “924 market” with potential for catch-up and that can surpass the annual moving average.

Kaiyuan Securities: AI+ high beta still supported at this stage

Currently, A-shares are in a bull market logic. We advise investors not to be shaken by short-term fluctuations. The core driver of this bull remains intact; a securities-to-GDP ratio above 1.1 remains a signal. Structurally, the entire A-share market is still in a relatively safe environment, with room for expansion in the securities ratio. Coupled with the relative profitability advantage of TMT sectors, AI+ high beta stocks are still likely to be supported. Industry allocation suggestions: (1) internal repair and high-low differentiation: military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, core AI hardware; (2) PPI improvement benefiting broad anti-involution: non-ferrous metals, chemicals, photovoltaics, steel, power, machinery, insurance; (3) medium- to long-term core holdings: gold, optimized high-dividend stocks.