Qianhai Open Source Fund Fund Manager Cui Chenlong: Insisting on Industrial Transition and Leading Value Resonance

Over the past year, the global technological revolution and industrial transformation have advanced in depth, with China’s breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and green energy being particularly exciting.

Main Tech Focus: AI Leading Industry Leap

By 2025, the market has entered a structurally bullish phase centered around technology, with sectors such as artificial intelligence, domestic computing power, and robotics becoming growth engines. This trend is expected to deepen further in 2026.

The rise of domestic computing power sees local leading companies continuously breaking through technical bottlenecks, with the penetration of domestic chips in cloud training and inference scenarios accelerating. As cloud providers like ByteDance see surging demand for computing power, domestic chip market share is likely to shift from “substitution” to “dominance.”

AI on device side, along with smart connectivity of all things in smartphones, PCs, and other traditional terminals, is driven by AI upgrades that revalue heat dissipation and battery components; AI glasses and AR devices open new imaginative spaces— the former relying on domestically produced SoC chips, the latter centered on optical modules, with a potential market of 200 billion yuan in the long term.

In internet and entertainment innovation, AI empowers cloud services, gaming, and film industries, with large models boosting content production efficiency. Domestic cloud service providers, leveraging cost advantages, are attracting back demand from overseas markets. Segments like drama series and PC games are entering a breakout phase, with the market size expected to surpass 10 billion yuan in 2026.

China’s high-end manufacturing is shifting from “catch-up” to “leading,” with the supply chain of domestically produced large aircraft C919 continuing to break through; aerospace engines and gas turbines have achieved significant breakthroughs from zero to one; cutting-edge equipment such as the 055 destroyer and DF-17 missile showcase military strength.

Leading Company Value: Structural Opportunities Amid Internal Competition

In the past two years, small- and mid-cap growth stocks and tech growth stocks led the market, but the valuation advantages and resilience of leading companies have been underestimated. In 2026, policies against internal competition and economic recovery will drive valuation re-rating.

First, fiscal efforts (long-term special bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan, special bonds of 6.49 trillion yuan) and policies to curb internal competition (restrict low-price competition, promote capacity cleanup) will optimize industry structure, with cyclical sectors like photovoltaics, pig farming, and chemicals likely to see bottoming out and reversal.

Second, high-end manufacturing continues to break through. In recent years, China’s manufacturing sector has been narrowing the gap with top global standards, with accelerated domestic substitution in aerospace engines, semiconductor equipment, and military gear. Breakthroughs in domestic lithography machines, the advent of satellite constellations, and the start of mass production of humanoid robots mark China’s intelligent manufacturing entering the core of the global value chain.

Global Perspective: Seizing Opportunities in the Energy Revolution and Emerging Markets

Currently, energy storage and power equipment are becoming key sectors across regions. Domestic independent energy storage business models are being streamlined, with installed capacity expected to grow 56% year-over-year in 2025; in the U.S., surging electricity demand from AI data centers (potentially accounting for 13% of the national total by 2030) and the retirement of coal plants are driving rigid energy storage demand. The photovoltaic industry, after the “internal competition” phase, is approaching a margin inflection point, with new applications like direct green power connection and solar-based desertification control further supporting growth. Leading companies in the main chain are expected to turn losses into profits across 2026.

Additionally, against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring and regional capacity clearing, some traditional manufacturing and service industries are experiencing structural turning points. For example, in the express delivery sector, a nationwide price war is effectively ending in 2025, with leading firms reaching rational pricing consensus, and revenues improving quarter-over-quarter for multiple consecutive periods. Coupled with automation in sorting and trunk transportation efficiency improvements, profits are expected to significantly improve, shifting the industry from “scale first” to “quality first.”

The chemical sector shows more pronounced global linkage: Europe has shut down over 11 million tons of high-energy-consuming basic chemical capacity between 2023 and 2024, including key intermediates like ammonia, methanol, and PVC. Meanwhile, China’s chemical industry has undergone nearly three years of deep destocking, with inventory levels of major products falling to their lowest in five years. Coupled with rising demand for downstream new energy materials (such as electrolytes and PVDF) and semiconductor chemicals, the industry’s overall valuation is at a historic low, with repair momentum building.

(Source: Securities Market Weekly)