#特朗普宣布新关税政策

Trump's new tariff policy takes effect on the 24th. What impact will it have on the crypto market?

1. Trump's Latest Global Tariff Policy

- Core Content: Based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a 15% uniform import tariff will be imposed on all goods imported into the U.S. from all countries/regions (originally planned at 10%, but urgently increased on the 21st).
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- Duration: 150 days (about 5 months). If not approved by Congress, it will automatically expire.
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- Background: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on the 20th that the previous "emergency tariffs" exceeded authority and were illegal. Trump immediately introduced new tariffs under a new law as a replacement.
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- Follow-up: More legally compliant tariff details will be announced in the coming months.

2. Main Impacts on the Crypto Market (Short-term + Logic)

1. Immediate Short-term Impact (Already Evident)

- BTC/ETH Correlated Drop: On the 23rd, Bitcoin briefly fell below $65,000, and crypto concept stocks (Coinbase, MARA, etc.) declined by 2%-3% across the board.
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- Capital Outflows: Net outflows from crypto ETFs, market risk aversion increased, and funds shifted to gold, U.S. Treasuries, and other traditional safe-haven assets.
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- Volatility Surge: Global trade uncertainties pushed up risk asset volatility, with the crypto market bearing the brunt.

2. Core Transmission Logic

- High Correlation Suppression: Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is about 0.74. As U.S. stocks weaken due to tariff concerns, cryptocurrencies face similar pressure.
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- USD and Liquidity: Tariffs raise inflation expectations in the U.S., potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens, and risk assets (including crypto) are negatively affected.
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- Weakening Safe-Haven Attributes: Crypto's speculative nature outweighs its safe-haven qualities, leading funds to prefer gold, U.S. Treasuries, and other traditional safe assets.
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- Policy Expectation Reversal: Crypto-friendly expectations during campaigns are offset by macro uncertainties caused by trade wars.

3. Potential Mid- to Long-term Effects

- If tariffs trigger a global trade war or recession, cryptocurrencies may shift from "risk assets" to safe-haven allocations (similar to after March 2020).
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- U.S.-based crypto companies (like Coinbase) face short-term pressure on performance and valuation due to dual pressures from the stock market and regulation.
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- Cross-border crypto payments and stablecoin demand may marginally increase due to trade frictions.

Short-term: Mainly bearish, increased volatility, capital outflows, correlated weakness with U.S. stocks.
Mid- to long-term: Depends on whether tariffs trigger a recession, the Federal Reserve's policy shift, and whether crypto's safe-haven attributes can be restored.