CITIC Securities: Focus on the post-holiday customer flow synergy effect and continue to recommend the prosperity cycle

2026-02-23 14:23:20

CITIC Securities APP learned that CITIC Securities released a research report stating that passenger volumes for civil aviation, railways, and highways during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season increased by 5.4%, 4.9%, and 5.4% year-on-year, respectively. Attention is given to the combined peak flows on the sixth and sixteenth days after the holiday, and it is expected that civil aviation passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season will increase by 5.5% to 6.0% year-on-year. The 2026 Spring Festival travel season will serve as the first “touchstone” for the aviation prosperity cycle. Emphasis is again placed on the “profitability turning point for airlines,” with expectations that major airlines could see significant improvements in their profit statements in 2026. The forecast for civil aviation passenger flow growth remains at 5.5% to 6.0% year-on-year. Over the next two months, positive demand factors are expected to continue emerging, and the firm continues to highlight that “major airlines may see significant improvements in their profit statements in 2026.” The recommendation continues to favor airlines with significant cyclical flexibility and higher earnings certainty.

CITIC Securities’s main points are as follows:

During the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season, passenger volumes for civil aviation, railways, and highways increased by 5.4%, 4.9%, and 5.4% year-on-year, respectively. Attention is given to the combined peak flows on the sixth and sixteenth days after the holiday, and it is expected that civil aviation passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season will increase by 5.5% to 6.0% year-on-year. Positive demand factors are expected to continue emerging over the next two months, and the firm reiterates that “major airlines may see significant improvements in their profit statements in 2026.”

As of February 21 (the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season, with the 2026 travel period from February 2 [Lunar December 15] to March 13 [Lunar January 25]), total cross-regional personnel movement in society increased by 5.2% year-on-year. Looking at transportation modes, passenger volume (with highway representing personnel flow) for civil aviation, railways, and highways increased by 5.4%, 4.9%, and 5.4% year-on-year, respectively. Compared to the same period in 2019, civil aviation and railway passenger volumes increased by 34% and 39%, respectively, indicating a relatively stable travel structure during the holiday. For example, in civil aviation data, the peak before the holiday occurred on February 11 (Lunar December 25), with passenger volume increasing by 4.4% to 2.459 million. By the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season, the post-holiday peak was on the fifth day, with passenger volume increasing by 7.4% to 2.607 million. The shift in the holiday schedule led to overlapping flows such as family visits, business travel, and student travel, and the firm expects civil aviation passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season to grow by 5.5% to 6.0% year-on-year. Considering the holiday schedule shift, the resumption of work immediately after the holiday, along with the significant compression of the gap during the Two Sessions, may trigger a surge in business travel demand. The expansion of the spring break in April is also worth noting. Positive demand factors are expected to continue emerging, and the firm emphasizes again that “major airlines may see significant improvements in their profit statements in 2026.”

Feature One: The growth rate of civil aviation passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season shows a “low first, then high” pattern, with the stimulating effect of secondary travel during the holiday becoming prominent, and post-holiday flows are expected to overlap.

Before the holiday (Lunar December 15 to Lunar New Year’s Eve), the 2026 Spring Festival falls on February 16, which is in the “seven-nine” period of the lunar solar terms, indicating a relatively late Spring Festival year. The family visit, business, and student flows before the holiday create some staggered effects, resulting in a 4.4% cumulative increase in civil aviation passenger volume compared to the same period in 2025. Excluding the approximately 7% weekly growth on Fridays in the two weeks before the holiday, other periods show only single-digit percentage increases year-on-year.
During the holiday (Lunar New Year’s Eve to the seventh day), the extended holiday and the “combination of leave” effect, along with warming weather and regional cultural tourism, are expected to boost civil aviation passenger growth to about 8% from the first to the seventh day. The secondary travel stimulation effect is significant, with cities like Shantou, Fuzhou, Chaozhou, and Taiyuan becoming prominent destinations for special travel.
After resumption of work (eighth to twenty-fifth day), the peaks on the seventh and sixteenth days after the holiday will bring high passenger flows. Due to the overlap of family visit, business, and student flows, the firm forecasts that civil aviation passenger volume during the 17 days after the Spring Festival will grow by about 6% year-on-year.

Feature Two: Negative factors affecting Japan routes have largely bottomed out. Flights are expected to mainly spill over to South Korea and Southeast Asia. The expansion of visa-free policies and the sustained high prosperity of China Travel suggest that “flying far, flying internationally, and flying to emerging markets” could continue to contribute to airline revenues in 2026.

According to data from the National Immigration Administration, the average daily inbound and outbound travelers during the Spring Festival holiday will exceed 2.05 million, a 14.1% increase year-on-year. Based on flight data from Flight Master, the total international passenger flights in the first 19 days of the 2026 Spring Festival travel season reached 37,500, up 0.8% year-on-year, recovering to 92% of 2019 levels. In terms of destinations, Thailand’s weekly flights number 1,101, ranking first among regions, but considering recent safety incidents, its recovery rate compared to 2019 is only about 76%. The Japanese market has experienced structural changes due to policy factors, currently ranking fifth among outbound destinations, with a recovery rate of about 57% compared to 2019. The firm believes that passenger flows on Japanese routes may spill over to Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Europe, with weekly flights to South Korea, Europe, and Vietnam reaching or exceeding 98%, 125%, and 145% of 2019 levels, respectively.

Feature Three: The Spring Festival ticket prices are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, with a focus on how “anti-involution” variables in civil aviation may drive high seat utilization and the transmission to fare elasticity.

According to CADAS data, the average full fare price for domestic routes during the first 19 days of the Spring Festival travel season was 978 yuan, a 1% decrease year-on-year. Stage-by-stage:

Early in the season (Lunar December 15–21), prices were slightly below those of 2025, averaging 947 yuan, down 1.3% year-on-year.
Near the holiday (Lunar December 23–26), prices declined more significantly, down 5.5% year-on-year. The peak fare in 2025 and 2026 both occurred on Lunar December 26, with 2026’s peak at 1,120 yuan, an 8% decrease from the previous year.
After the holiday (Lunar January 1–4), during the “segmented New Year” period, secondary travel stimulation led to fare recovery, with average prices at 979 yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year. The peaks on the seventh and sixteenth days will also bring high passenger flows, with the overlapping of family, business, and student flows exerting positive effects on fares.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic growth below expectations; travel demand weaker than expected; international route recovery slower than anticipated; oil and exchange rate impacts exceeding expectations.

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