The market has hit an extreme bottom: analysis of signals for BTC, ADA, and AVAX

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a classic panic sell-off not seen since 2021. While most investors are closing positions at a loss and hiding signs of scams, analysts see not a catastrophe but the formation of a historic bottom — a moment that lays the foundation for a significant recovery. Current on-chain data confirms that we are at a critical level where the risk is highest, but the potential for recovery is enormous.

Historical Pattern: When Panic Forms the Bottom

Parallels with previous market cycles show that moments of greatest fear often coincide with the birth of new trends. In January of this year, analysts predicted a critical drop in BTC — the forecast was 100% accurate. The first and second target levels based on expert calculations have been reached, indicating the precision of technical analysis in extreme conditions.

Bitcoin recently touched the $60,000 level, leaving a characteristic “shadow” on the candle — a technical pattern often preceding a recovery. The market typically returns to such levels to fully cover these points with a candle body before a complete reversal. As of February 22, 2026, the price recovered to $67,370, already demonstrating readiness for a bounce off the bottom.

Technical Analysis: Structure of Recovery from the Bottom

Behavior of alternative assets confirms the start of a new cycle. ADA holds at $0.27, and AVAX remains at $8.81 despite pressure on BTC. This is no coincidence — such asynchrony indicates conscious interest from institutional players, who selectively accumulate assets near the bottom.

When altcoins do not fall in sync with the flagship, it signals internal market strength. This means large participants are preparing for recovery, not just closing positions but reallocating capital.

On-Chain Data: Powerful Capital Movement at the Critical Moment

Network metrics tell a compelling story. During the largest decline, there was an inflow of 98,000 BTC against an outflow of 84,000 BTC — a net positive capital movement during maximum fear, a clear bottom signal.

Simultaneously, USDT dominance rose to 9% — nearly reaching the “crypto winter” level of 2022 (9.49%). This concentration of stablecoins confirms our proximity to the critical bottom, where capital remains liquid, waiting for the entry point. Historically, this has preceded recovery in previous cycles.

Investment Conclusion: Preparing for a Growth Cycle

Current conditions present a rare opportunity. When the market is at the bottom and on-chain data shows institutional capital inflow, it creates an asymmetric risk-reward ratio. The panic of 2021 marked the beginning of superprofits for those who acted calmly and methodically.

The market offers a second chance. Those who analyze data instead of following emotions gain an advantage in transitioning from the bottom to recovery.