Glassnode: The Critical Report on the Price Basis Revealed Bearish Pressures in Bitcoin

In early February, Glassnode published a significant report highlighting key indicators of a recessionary context in the cryptocurrency market. According to BlockBeats, on-chain behavior analysis suggested a profound shift toward bearish dynamics, resulting in an approximate 45% correction over 100 consecutive days. The report examines how investment patterns and the price basis became decisive factors in the downward pressure observed in the ecosystem.

Long-Term Holders and Profit Pressure: Signals of the Bear Market

Glassnode’s analysis reveals that since November 1, long-term holders realized gains of approximately 318,000 BTC. This massive sell-off amid ongoing market weakness continued to exert consistent downward pressure on prices. However, the report also notes that starting in early December, these institutional investors began increasing their positions again, indicating a significant slowdown in their profit-taking activity.

This behavioral shift marks an inflection point in market dynamics. The decision by large holders to halt their sales suggests a tactical assessment of the timing, indicating that many consider current levels as accumulation opportunities rather than peaks to offload positions.

Market Loss Level and Price Structure: Comparative Analysis

The report details that at a price level of $60,000, the market loss level reached approximately 24%, a percentage significantly above the threshold marking the transition from bullish to bearish contexts. This metric reveals that the market is in a deep recession phase but has not yet entered an extreme panic selling stage, where this indicator would exceed 50%.

What is particularly interesting in the report is how these data suggest a process of compression and consolidation of speculative bubbles. Unlike other more severe correction periods, the current market maintains a more orderly structure, albeit under considerable stress. The current analysis indicates BTC is trading around $67.61K, showing a partial recovery from those previous lows, which reinforces the report’s thesis on the cyclical nature of the market.

Cost Basis of Major Holders: Psychological Pressure in the Current Market

Since reaching its previous high in October, prices have shown consistent difficulty stabilizing above the cost basis of the top 1%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of large holders. At the $60,000 level, prices were approximately 37% below the 20% top cost basis, which hovers around $95,000.

This gap in the price basis reflects that high-level buyers face considerable psychological pressure. Glassnode’s report compares this current market structure to that observed in May 2022, when the market was under similar stress. Both instances show behavioral patterns where the price basis becomes a key psychological level that limits recovery.

The report’s analysis suggests that as long as the cost basis remains so elevated relative to current prices, psychological pressure on institutional investors will continue to be a limiting factor for sustained bullish movements. This particular dynamic is what Glassnode highlights as fundamental to understanding the architecture of the current market.