Which company has the strongest Spring Festival market? A review of BTC and A-shares data during the 11th Spring Festival

Author: Shouyi, Amelia I Biteye Content Team

On New Year’s Eve, the market presented a highly controversial scene: on one side, the bullish sentiment and policy favorable news in A-shares before the holiday; on the other side, the crypto market caught in high-level oscillations, even breaking the “historical rule.”

Various jokes and discussions about “whether to sell coins and buy stocks” are everywhere. Faced with these two vastly different markets, how should investors choose? During the holiday season, since you’re here, Biteye combines the latest data to analyze the current investment logic.

1. Core conclusion: The Spring Festival market is not a “choose one” competition

Before diving into the data, we need to clarify a basic understanding: both BTC and A-shares have their own independent “Spring Festival effect,” but simply comparing their gains horizontally is not scientific.

Data cutoff: February 14, 2026 UTC (based on CoinGecko BTC daily OHLC data and Shanghai Stock Exchange announcements)

Statistical scope: Using the last trading day before the Spring Festival closing price to the first trading day after the festival’s turbulence (about 7-8 calendar days, excluding weekends), ensuring A-shares and BTC time windows are fully aligned.

Key observations:

BTC’s Spring Festival effect: Before 2025, BTC maintained a 10-year streak of positive returns during the Spring Festival (2015-2024), but in 2025, it first broke this “rule” with a -2.3% decline. 2026 may continue the weakness. This indicates a shift of BTC pricing power from Chinese capital cycles to global macro assets.

A-shares’ policy boost: The Spring Festival rally in A-shares is mainly driven by pre-holiday liquidity and post-holiday policy expectations. In January 2026, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 had a maximum monthly increase of 15.81%, showing typical “spring surge” characteristics.

Historical lessons reveal the evolution of patterns.

Comparing with 11 years of historical data, we can observe the pattern’s evolution.

2. The “iron law” of BTC fails

For a long time, the crypto world experienced “red envelope” rallies around the Spring Festival. Specifically, within a small cycle of 7 days before and after the festival (e.g., February 14-20, 2026), there was a 10-year record of continuous gains, never failing.

Reviewing this “golden decade” of gains, the increase ranged from a slight +0.8% in 2015 to nearly +20% in 2018 and 2024. These are no small “red envelopes,” often considered the “year-end bonus” for crypto investors.

However, the capital markets are notorious for defying expectations.

In 2025, this “iron law” was broken for the first time. During the Spring Festival, BTC dropped from $101,332 to $98,997, a -2.3% decline; in 2026, the curse seems to persist and intensify. Between January 15 and February 15, a 31-day period, BTC experienced intense shakeouts, falling from a high of $97,193 to a low of $60,000. Although it rebounded to around $70,000 on Valentine’s night, the maximum decline in this interval still reached 38.27%. [1]

What does this mean? In financial markets, a decline of over 20% is usually considered entering a “technical bear market,” and nearly 40% is a deep correction or crash.

On-chain data shows that currently, MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has fallen to 1.25, and NUPL (Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio) to 0.20. [2] These low levels indicate that the recent decline has cleared out a large amount of leveraged positions, and the market is in a typical deleveraging and risk-averse phase, not a frenzy.

The failure of the red envelope rally behind this is a fundamental shift in BTC’s pricing power—from a Chinese capital-driven cycle to a global macro asset dominated by Bitcoin ETFs from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity. Its correlation with US stocks and dollar liquidity is increasing, making traditional lunar calendar-based seasonal patterns naturally invalid.

Relying solely on the calendar to buy coins seems to be a strategy that needs changing.

3. A-shares’ policy red envelope

Many believe that the crypto market is currently bearish, while global stocks are booming, and even A-shares are rallying under policy stimulation, with the RMB strengthening. It seems “selling coins and buying stocks” is a wise move. We compare from three dimensions:

First, returns and volatility. A-shares are policy-driven. Under strong fiscal stimulus, January saw significant gains across sectors, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 up by a maximum of 15.81% [3], and trading volume surged. The overall pattern is “steady index rise, broad-based stock gains”; BTC, however, heavily depends on global liquidity. Although January performance was poor, BTC is still in a period of digestion post-halving. Its underlying logic is tied to dollar tides, not domestic policies.

Second, long-term compound interest. Comparing ten-year data from 2016-2025, Bitcoin’s annualized compound return is about 70.16%; while the CSI 300 index’s is around 2.93% [4]. A-shares excel in short-term policy bursts, while BTC benefits from long-term compounding and global liquidity premiums.

Third, exchange rate factors. This is the most critical variable now. On February 13, 2026, as the central bank allowed the RMB to break through 6.90 before the holiday, the RMB/USD exchange rate hit a near three-year high [5]. This means holding dollar assets (like BTC/USDT) faces exchange rate losses when converted back to RMB. As Sina Finance pointed out, the core driver of this RMB appreciation is “corporate foreign exchange settlement before the Spring Festival.” This not only causes exchange rate losses but also reveals capital flow: real enterprises are selling dollar positions (including some OTC USDT) to meet RMB payment needs during the holiday. This liquidity “bloodletting” puts RMB-denominated assets under pressure; holding RMB assets (A-shares) benefits from both asset appreciation and exchange rate appreciation, creating a double benefit. This provides a strong logical basis for “short-term switching to A-shares.”

There’s an old Chinese saying: those who understand the times are wise. It seems that it’s really time to switch from crypto to A-shares.

4. The myth of correlation: A-shares and crypto are two different capital logic systems

For friends still committed to crypto, can they rely on the “see-saw effect” to stick to their beliefs? That is: A-shares are draining crypto, and when A-shares fall, funds will flow back into crypto?

The reality is not so.

First, their correlation is weak. A-shares are influenced by China’s monetary policy, while BTC is affected by Fed rate decisions. Although some overlap exists (Chinese investors), at the macro level, they are two independent systems.

Second, there is a certain degree of “extreme co-movement.” Under extreme risk, both tend to move in the same direction. For example, on February 6, 2026, the market experienced a typical “triple kill”—US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all plunged simultaneously. This completely discredits the simple “inverse relationship” logic.

Therefore, it’s unrealistic to expect a stock market crash to save crypto, or to blindly increase Bitcoin holdings during a correction. Only under specific conditions—such as domestic risk aversion leading to cross-market allocations—might negative correlation occur, but capital controls limit the scale effect.

Conclusion: Only children choose, adults want everything

Back to the original question: during the New Year, should you invest in stocks or crypto?

The answer should not be a “choose one” gamble, but a strategic combination based on the Merrill Investment Clock.

Consider the domestic and international situation. The domestic economy is expected to recover strongly, with attractive A-shares Beta returns, suitable for capturing policy dividends; abroad, inflation expectations remain, liquidity has not yet turned, and BTC remains a core tool against fiat devaluation as “digital gold.”

Biteye recommends: adopt a “dumbbell strategy”

Instead of jumping back and forth between markets, enduring high fees and psychological stress from missing opportunities, it’s better to build a resilient portfolio:

One end of the dumbbell (aggressive): actively allocate to A-shares ETFs or quality blue chips. Follow the RMB appreciation and policy momentum, ride this wave of market gains, but stay alert to signals from the central bank to prevent overextension and avoid chasing highs blindly.

The other end (high reward, defensive): hold core BTC positions. Despite short-term volatility (such as 38% retracement), considering the historical inertia of halving cycles, completely liquidating might mean missing out on low-price entries forever.

The 2026 Spring Festival may be the most “divided” in recent years. The RMB’s strength corresponds to a brief winter in the crypto market. But remember, cycles are only delayed, not absent. Investing in stocks depends on “market signals” (policy), while crypto relies on “cycle charts” (halving and liquidity). In this dual-volatility market, hold your positions—whether in red A-shares or orange Bitcoin—surviving is winning. That’s the mature investor’s “New Year posture.”