How An Analyst Nailed Bitcoin's Crash — And Why $104K Could Be Next

gas_fee_therapist · 2026-02-13T11:14:44+00:00

An analyst accurately predicted a -40% correction for Bitcoin after its October 2025 peak, grounding the forecast in cycle mathematics. Following this, the model now indicates a potential rally to $104,000 by late summer 2026, suggesting a bullish phase ahead.

gas_fee_therapist

2026-02-13 11:14:44

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The crypto prediction that was laughed off by the crowd turned out to be brutally accurate. Back in October 2025, when Bitcoin reached its peak, one analyst warned that BTC could face a significant correction ranging anywhere from -20% to -77% into the next major market pivot. While most traders were shouting “buy the dip,” this call came with cold, mathematical precision.

The market delivered exactly what the model predicted. From the October 2025 all-time high to early February 2026, Bitcoin tanked -40% — landing squarely within the predicted range. No guesswork. No hindsight bias. Just pure cycle mathematics that nailed the move with surgical accuracy. At $66.95K as of mid-February 2026, Bitcoin is still 46% below the historical peak of $126.08K reached during the recent cycle.

The Prediction That Got Nailed: BTC’s -40% Correction Confirmed

The analyst’s track record here is the foundation for the next bold call. When the crowd dismissed the warnings, the market spoke louder. The -40% correction landed right in the “kill zone” — the predicted territory where the cycle model said major reversals would occur. This kind of precision tracking isn’t luck; it reflects a systematic approach to understanding crypto market cycles.

What makes this framework compelling is that it wasn’t built on emotion or sentiment — it was grounded in yearly cycle analysis. The analyst nailed the downside because the numbers were unambiguous. Now those same numbers are flashing a different signal.

The Cycle Model’s Next Pivot: Why Bitcoin Could Rally to $104K

According to the yearly cycle model framework, the early February pivot point marks a critical inflection. From this low, the model projects a +40% expansion extending through late summer 2026. Run the calculations: a +40% move from current levels suggests Bitcoin could target the $104,000 zone between now and September.

If the analyst nailed the crash with the same precision being applied here, Bitcoin would need to gain approximately 55% from current prices to hit that target — a significant but not unprecedented move for a crypto asset entering a bullish cycle phase. The math points in one direction. The question now is whether the market will once again follow the pattern that the analyst got perfectly right.

BTC4.53%

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