Bitcoin tests a critical level: Standard Chartered warns of the 50,000 threshold, with year-end target lowered to 100,000

February 13, 2026, the Asian trading session for cryptocurrencies briefly paused after the overnight sell-off in U.S. stocks, but cautious sentiment still lingers in the air.

Previously, Standard Chartered Bank, known as the “Bitcoin Bull Market Flagbearer,” released a report that caught the market’s attention: lowering the year-end Bitcoin target price from $150,000 to $100,000—just a few months ago, this forecast was as high as $300,000. What also tightened short-term traders’ nerves was Standard Chartered’s warning: before Bitcoin stabilizes fully, it may first dip to the $50,000 level.

Real-time Market: Bitcoin Holds Around $66,000

According to the latest data from Gate’s spot trading market on February 13, BTC/USDT is currently quoted at $66,978.1, up 0.79% over 24 hours.

This price has recovered somewhat from the overnight low. Influenced by risk assets in the New York session coming under pressure, Bitcoin once plunged 4% to $65,079, hitting this week’s lowest level. Ethereum also fell to $1,896 before bouncing slightly, currently fluctuating around $1,950.

Zizo Maestro, a verified author on Gate Square, compared the current market to a “tightened violin string” in today’s analysis, believing that although pain persists, chips are shifting from panic sellers to long-term holders.

Standard Chartered Turns: From “Super Bullish Flagbearer” to “$50,000 Warning”

Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, bluntly stated in the report: “We expect further price capitulation-driven sell-offs in the coming months.”

This is not just a simple technical correction, but based on two major structural headwinds:

ETF Capital Outflows Continue

Since the peak last October, Bitcoin spot ETF holdings have decreased by nearly 100,000 BTC. Kendrick pointed out that the average cost basis for ETF holdings is around $90,000, and the current price has caused many holdings to be in unrealized losses. This not only fails to provide support but could trigger new stop-loss selling pressure.

Macro Liquidity Tightening

In January, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, well above expectations, leading traders to delay the first rate cut from June to July. Prolonged higher interest rates are draining funds from global risk assets, including the crypto market.

Key Level Map: $58,000 Is the Bulls’ Last Stand

As the $70,000 psychological level is once again lost, technical analysts are re-marking the critical support/resistance boundary.

Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst at IG Australia, outlined the most closely watched scenarios:

• Defense Line (Green Zone): $58,000

Corresponds to the 200-week moving average. Last Friday, Bitcoin found effective support here and rebounded over 10%. As long as this level holds, the technical structure still leaves room to retest the $73,000–$75,000 resistance zone.

• Breakout Zone (Yellow Light Zone): Sustained below $60,000 / $58,000

If this area is confirmed to be broken, it “opens the door for further downside,” with the next support zone moving down to the mid-$40,000s.

• Standard Chartered Scenario (Warning Zone): $50,000

This level is not based solely on technical lines but combines ETF liquidation pressure and macro data to forecast an “emotional bottom.”

On-Chain Reality: How Does This Drop Differ from 2022?

Despite the continuous price setbacks, many analysts point out that the current market structure is fundamentally different from the Terra / FTX collapse of 2022.

CryptoQuant’s data shows several cycle indicators are in “no man’s land”—not recovering as quickly as during mid-bull markets nor entering the extreme oversold zones typical of late bear markets.

Standard Chartered also emphasizes that this round of selling has not triggered any liquidity crises or systemic collapses on major digital asset platforms, unlike the chain of failures among centralized institutions in 2022. Usage data for digital assets remains improving, and infrastructure layers have not suffered structural damage.

Bitget Chief Analyst Ryan Lee shares a cautious view: the market may not have confirmed a macro bottom yet, liquidity remains tight, but true capitulation—often accompanied by 30%–40% unrealized losses for long-term holders—is still some distance away.

Sentiment Profile: Coinbase Losses and “Whale” Reaccumulation

On the corporate level, Coinbase reported a loss of $667 million in Q4, with revenue down 20% year-over-year to $1.8 billion, and its stock has fallen 37% year-to-date. Wall Street firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. downgraded its rating to “Sell,” calling the assumption of a stable industry recovery “foolish and superficial.”

However, another undercurrent is emerging.

Glassnode data shows that “whale” wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have accumulated about 53,000 BTC in the past week, worth over $4 billion. This is the largest buy-in since November last year. This behavior interrupts the months-long trend of whale disposals, indicating that the smartest whales are starting to position at low levels, even if institutional funds have not yet returned in large scale.

Summary

Faced with Standard Chartered’s “$50,000 warning” and year-end “$100,000 target” seemingly contradictory forecasts, Gate’s verified author Zizo Maestro offers a trading rhythm-aligned suggestion: if you are resilient—buy at lows in Gate’s spot and futures markets. If you are risk-averse—set stop-losses and hold quietly.

This “dollar-cost averaging, price-averaging, and mindset-diversification” strategy directly addresses the core contradiction in the current market: the macro headwinds on the left, and the long-term supply tightening post-halving on the right.

For daily candlestick traders, the $65,000 intraday support and the $58,000 weekly critical support are the most important levels to watch in the coming weeks. For long-term investors, the $50,000–$60,000 zone defined by Standard Chartered as a “pre-stabilization dip” is becoming another long-term accumulation area, following the $16,000 level in 2022.