Data analysts warn about the future prospects of Russian oil; the market may face a turning point if India halts imports.

OldLeekConfession · 2026-02-13T07:19:12+00:00

DNB analysts warn that India's suspension of Russian oil purchases will have a serious impact on Moscow's sales strategy. India is a key buyer, and losing it would pose significant challenges to Russia's market diversification.

OldLeekConfession

2026-02-13 07:19:12

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Major Norwegian bank DNB’s analysts are issuing a serious warning regarding the future of the Russian oil market. There is a common industry consensus that if India ceases purchasing oil from Russia, Moscow will find it extremely difficult to secure alternative buyers.

Vulnerabilities in the Market Structure Highlighted by DNB Analysts

India has historically been one of the largest buyers of Russian oil. According to Kpler data analysis as of December, India’s crude oil imports reached 1.36 million barrels per day. This figure clearly demonstrates how heavily India depends on Russian oil. Industry analysts, including those from DNB, believe that losing such a massive volume of purchases suddenly would have a serious impact on Russia’s oil sales strategy.

Structural Challenges from US-India Tariff Negotiations

Ongoing negotiations between the United States and India are directly linked to the future of the oil market. According to Jin10 reports, the US has agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian products to 18% in exchange for India stopping its procurement of Russian oil. This political deal is not just about tariff adjustments; it signifies a reorganization of global energy flows.

Future of the Russian Oil Market and Challenges in Alternative Strategies

Analysts warn that Russia’s biggest challenge is diversifying its oil sales channels if it loses the Indian market. With its current reliance on limited buyers, securing alternative markets will not be easy. Challenges such as changing transportation routes, re-evaluating pricing strategies, and entering new markets may all arise simultaneously. Industry analysts are closely monitoring how these developments will unfold over the coming months.

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