Bitcoin's Next Breakout: How Market Watchers Are Reading the $112K-$160K Rally

Winter trading season brought renewed turbulence to crypto markets, but seasoned analysts are painting a starkly different picture than the mainstream panic. Instead of topping signals, they’re seeing consolidation zones and institutional repositioning. Real-time market data shows Bitcoin trading at $91.28K (down 2.05% in 24h) while Ethereum sits at $3.11K (-3.47% in 24h), yet the technical structure remains bullish according to veteran traders who’ve navigated multiple market cycles.

The Contrarian Long Setup

Market veteran Astronomer—a trader meaning someone who charts price movement patterns with precision and experience—maintains conviction that Bitcoin’s macro bull market is far from finished. His thesis: current pullbacks are liquidity grabs, not trend reversals. He projects a minimum target of $112,000 with 99% probability, an extension to $118,000 with 91% confidence, and a potential ultimate peak toward $160,000 by February-March 2026 if euphoria conditions materialize.

Rather than panic-selling dips, Astronomer treats every $2,000-$3,000 drop as a structural buying opportunity. His reasoning: the market hasn’t recorded consecutive weekly closes below $80,600—a critical support level he expects to hold through March 2026.

Reading the Price Structure

The framework behind his analysis abandons typical indicators in favor of institutional-grade price action. Three key levels anchor his strategy:

Support Zones: The 0.5 Fibonacci level near $88,000 acts as high-conviction support, while the weekly open around $90,300 functions as a liquidity magnet that institutions reliably respect.

Resistance Framework: The 0.75 Fibonacci retracement near $93,000 has become a zone where short-term rallies face rejection, requiring a break and rehold to signal strength.

Macro Recovery Path: His model calls for a rebound reclaiming the yearly open above $94,000, followed by a grind higher into the $112K region over coming weeks.

This framework relies on historical capitulation patterns—periods where retail panic-selling creates the conditions for explosive rallies—rather than sentiment surveys or on-chain metrics alone.

The Four-Year Cycle Peak

Zooming out to longer timeframes, Bitcoin may have already begun its final cycle leg. Astronomer forecasts the highest probability for a new all-time high arrives in January 2026, with an early test possible by late December. The true four-year cycle peak—where price potentially extends toward $160,000—likely lands between February and March 2026, coinciding with typical seasonal strength.

This timeline assumes macro conditions (Fed liquidity, geopolitical risk appetite) remain stable. Each week of holding above $80,600 reinforces the bull structure.

Ethereum: Misreading the Bounce

While Bitcoin draws most attention, Ethereum deserves equal focus. At current levels ($3.11K), the asset sits on high-timeframe bullish structure that the market is actively misinterpreting as weakness.

Astronomer’s observation: traders keep calling cycle tops after small liquidity sweeps and pullbacks—a pattern that has historically failed every time. The difference now is that large capital and whale-driven order flow dominate price discovery. Small sweeps no longer signal macro tops; they’re just noise in a larger uptrend.

His conviction: Ethereum is not topping. Significant liquidity sits above current price. The market is positioning for a continuation push above $5,000 and a fresh all-time high within similar timeframes as Bitcoin.

Trading Execution in Real Time

Discipline separates this analyst from typical social media traders. His process:

Position Sizing: He deploys roughly 20% of account capital per swing trade, targeting 2% gains per 1% BTC move—a 2:1 reward-to-risk setup that compounds over time.

Recent Entries: On December 3, he entered longs between $84,100 and $90,000, hit his first target at $93,000, closed most positions, and left a 5% runner, booking +2.5R (risk units). On December 4, he flipped short near $93,000, took partials at $91,800 and $91,000, held 50% of the position for +2R at that moment.

Current Stance: He maintains a small long runner while watching New York open order flow. He’s sidelined on new longs above $91,000 unless fresh signals emerge. This patient approach prevents overtrading—a common mistake during choppy periods.

The Contrarian Message

Pullbacks aren’t failures; they’re infrastructure-building. Every dip creates fresh entry points for traders positioned for the continuation. If broader sentiment turns bearish again, expect him to escalate contrarian positioning rather than capitulate.

The market’s current mood—fear masquerading as caution—may eventually become the exact conditions that ignite the next leg of the Bitcoin and Ethereum rally toward those ambitious targets.