International spot gold hit a new record in January 2026, breaking through the historical threshold of $4690.88 per ounce during trading. The domestic market responded, with pure gold jewelry prices approaching 1450 yuan/gram, just one step away from the 1500 yuan mark.

Behind this surge are actually two forces acting simultaneously. The immediate trigger is clear—Tensions between the Trump administration and European countries over Greenland have led to increased tariffs, escalating US-EU trade tensions, and uncertainties in the Middle East, causing a sudden surge in risk aversion. Large inflows of funds into gold as a safe haven pushed prices up nearly $100 at the opening.

Deeper support comes from the macro environment. The Federal Reserve's ongoing rate cut cycle has led to a relative depreciation of the US dollar. Global central banks have been increasing their gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, and institutional investment funds are continuously allocating. This has formed a stable long-term support framework.

A key variable to watch in the short-term market is the interaction between US and European leaders at the EU summit and the Davos Forum, which will largely determine the direction of trade tensions. If tensions are not eased, the probability of gold prices further pushing towards $4700 is quite high.

From institutional expectations, optimism still persists. DBS Bank forecasts that gold could reach $5100 in the second half of the year, while Morgan Stanley has set a target of $4800. However, current prices are already at historical highs, and short-term volatility is possible. Caution is advised when chasing the rally.