The Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany recently released a quite eye-catching study. They analyzed the tariffs imposed by the United States from January 2024 to November 2025 and found what? 96% of the costs ultimately fall on American consumers and importers, while foreign exporters only share 4%. Nearly $200 billion in tariff revenue is basically paid entirely by the U.S. domestic market.

This contradicts many politicians' statements. They often say tariffs are paid by foreign producers, but how does it actually work? Foreign exporters are quite clever—they simply stabilize prices and reduce shipment volumes. As for the costs? They are absorbed at the border by importers and then passed down through multiple layers. How much of this transmission reaches consumer prices? Only about 20%, and it takes about half a year for the effect to fully materialize. Who absorbs the remaining 80%? Importers and retailers bear it directly, with profit margins shrinking sharply.

The real chain reaction is here: such tariff manipulations gradually drain the market’s available liquidity. Consumers and businesses have less and less idle money to invest in speculative assets. Looking at the crypto market since October, it’s clear—there’s been neither a crash nor a rally, it’s like being locked in a dead water pond, completely entering a liquidity stagnation period.