2026-01-20 02:24:33

There is a common pitfall when making investment decisions—focusing only on the trend and forgetting the timing.

Taking the education and training industry as an example. When people see the continuous decline in birth rates, they immediately conclude: avoid education and training, this industry is doomed. The logic sounds solid, but it misses a key dimension.

By adding a time scale for re-evaluation, it becomes clear: in the short term (the past few years), this industry can still operate, and the real decline will only fully manifest after ten or more years. This time gap is enough to change many investment decisions.

The trend is correct, but trend judgments without a time frame often cause people to miss the window or to act too early. Next time you analyze any market change, ask yourself: when will this trend truly establish?

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FOMOSapien

· 19h ago

That's the problem. Most people go blind when looking at candlestick charts and insist on reversing the cycle. Education and training are living examples of this. The bombs that explode ten years later—how can you step on them right now as if they were about to blow?

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PerpetualLonger

· 19h ago

Haha, this is why I've been consistently buying the dip in the education sector! The bears have been shouting to sell out long ago, but the window hasn't closed yet. I keep my full position and add more, holding steady, just waiting for this breakout. The time dimension is really crucial; I don't care about what will happen ten years from now. First, I want to recover my current investment. Faith, you know, without patience, you simply can't endure.

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WalletDivorcer

· 20h ago

Actually, there are too many people who are eager for quick gains. They jump on a trend and run, but who the hell cares about what will happen in ten or twenty years?

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StakeTillRetire

· 20h ago

Wow, this is the pit I stepped into... I never thought about the time lag when I was bearish on education and training.

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BearMarketSunriser

· 20h ago

Now I have to reflect on it. I've really become numb to the education and training stuff, but the aspect of the time dimension is indeed often overlooked, and it's a bit harsh.

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