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The market has been quite interesting these days. Today is a critical point for me; according to previous cycle theories, it's time to take action.
The recent break above 3200 for ETH does make people a bit nervous, but on-chain data shows that buying pressure is still there. Although everyone is complaining, big wallets don't lie—BitMine recently injected another 86,848 ETH into the ecosystem, which is about $279.4 million USD at current prices. That's a significant move. This could actually be an opportunity. If it can rebound to 3655, 30x leverage might be worth a try.
BTC is still declining and hasn't shown clear signs of recovery. The entire market's enthusiasm is focused on altcoins and various meme coins, while mainstream cryptocurrencies are somewhat cold. SOL initially had good on-chain activity recovery, but now everyone is trading meme coins with stablecoins, and the hot money flow has completely shifted.
There are also new macro signals. CME's Federal Reserve watch tool indicates a 95% probability of holding interest rates steady in January, which reassures the market. Meanwhile, the 40-year Japanese government bond yield has broken through 4% for the first time since 2007, drawing market attention to potential BOJ foreign exchange interventions.
Interestingly, Arkham analysts found an on-chain address suspected to belong to a Bhutanese fund engaging in high-leverage ETH long positions, indicating institutional players are also bottom-fishing. Additionally, the USDT to Bolivar exchange rate in Venezuela has been steadily declining since January 7, dropping about 40% overall, reflecting liquidity pressure in emerging markets.
By the way, Magic Eden announced that 15% of the platform's total revenue will be used for the ME token ecosystem, with 50% allocated for buybacks. Only now do they start to think about buybacks. Some projects only start doing this when they're about to fail, which is quite ironic.
Overall, the current phase is a mixed market. Mainstream cryptocurrencies have support, but risks remain. If you haven't managed risk properly, don't leverage lightly.