A recently declassified meeting record from the Federal Reserve in September 2020 reveals a key chapter of policy history that had been sealed for five years.

At the time, the inflation rate was only 1.3%, but Powell led the push for an aggressive interest rate guidance—keeping the benchmark rate near zero. He pledged that unless the labor market achieved full employment and inflation sustained above 2%, there would be no rate hikes. Despite objections from several Fed officials and even two chairs questioning the decision on the spot, it was ultimately approved.

Why was such a decision made? The reason lies in the Fed's recent shift in policy framework, abandoning the traditional preemptive rate hikes to combat inflation. This new framework appeared flexible, but problems soon followed.

What happened next was visible to the market. Starting in 2021, inflation began to rise, reaching over 7% by mid-2022. However, constrained by previous commitments, the Fed delayed rate hikes until March 2022, missing the optimal window to control inflation. Powell later publicly admitted this mistake, stating he would never make such long-term promises again.

Interestingly, the meeting record also shows that not only voting officials were concerned about overcommitment risks, but other members also raised doubts. In the end, everyone chose collective compromise.

What does this delayed truth tell us? It indicates that amid the unique circumstances of the pandemic, there were disagreements within the Fed on policy direction, but ultimately a relatively aggressive stance was adopted. This also explains why the Fed's initial response to inflation was so delayed.

For the crypto market, macro policies are always a key variable. The interest rate policies laid out back then have continued to influence the Fed's attitude toward rate cuts to this day. The question now is whether the release of this record will further alter market expectations for the Fed's future policy pace. In an environment where macro conditions remain uncertain, how should crypto assets be allocated? This is likely a question every market participant is contemplating.