Here's the reality for active traders: you can't actually slap a probability number on any single trade you execute. And if you can't quantify probability, attaching certainty to that trade becomes impossible too.

What you *can* do from a statistical standpoint is work with possibility—a broader, less rigid framework. But here's what actually moves the needle in trading: asymmetrical risk-to-reward ratios.

That's the edge. That's what separates noise from signal. When your setup generates an R:R that favors the upside, probability becomes secondary. You're playing a game of compounding small edges across multiple trades, not chasing certainty in any single position.

Think of it differently. Stop hunting for the perfect entry with guaranteed odds. Instead, structure your risk so that even if you're right only 40% of the time, your winners still outsize your losers. That asymmetry? That's your real probability.