## US 10-Year Treasury Yields Push Gold Toward Equilibrium: XAU/USD Stops at 4,455 Dollars

### Market Dynamics: the dollar regains momentum while gold consolidates gains

On Thursday, the gold market shows a picture of tactical stalemate. The XAU/USD quote remains anchored around 4,455 dollars after a brief downward move to 4,407 dollars. Two main factors are currently restraining the yellow metal: the acceleration of US Treasury yields and a greenback that is regaining ground after weeks of relative weakness.

The US dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.20%, reaching 98.92 points, surpassing the 200-day moving average set at 98.87. This movement is an important signal for bullish traders, although the true confirmation of a sustained rebound will depend on a daily close above this technical level. In terms of yields, the US 10-year note increased by about 2.5 basis points, reaching 4.173%, while real yields appreciated by 2 basis points to 1.903%.

### US Jobs Data Paint an Unexpected Picture

Recent US economic reports surprised analysts with mixed signals. Initial unemployment claims for the week ending January 3rd reached 208,000 units, beating forecasts of 210,000 but increasing from 200,000 the previous week. Meanwhile, the December Challenger Job Cuts report shows a dramatic reduction in announced layoffs, falling to 35,553, roughly halved compared to November’s total. Andy Challenger, Chief Revenue Officer of the agency, commented on this trend, noting that 2024 ended with the lowest annual dismissals recorded in 2023, with December showing an encouraging increase in hiring plans.

An additional surprise comes from foreign trade: the US goods and services deficit contracted sharply from $48.1 billion to $29.4 billion in October, beating expectations of a widening deficit. The decline was mainly driven by reduced imports, especially in the pharmaceutical sector.

### Consumer Sentiment Weakens Despite Labor Market Resilience

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s consumer expectations survey, a more fragile psychological picture emerges. Short-term inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.2%, while medium- and long-term expectations remain stable at 3%. What is most concerning is consumers’ attitude toward employment: both confidence in the ability to find a job and concerns about potential job losses have worsened. This contrast between solid data and psychological perception is an important dynamic to monitor.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now estimate for Q4 2025 jumped from 2.7% to 5.4%, reflecting the impact of recent economic data on growth forecasts.

### What to Expect: Eyes on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls

The real test for the market will come with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Forecasts indicate an increase of 60,000 jobs in December, slightly below the 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 4.6% to 4.5%. This data will have significant implications for the trajectory of gold and bond yields.

Money markets are now pricing in 56 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, suggesting expectations of a gradual easing of monetary policy.

### Technical Analysis: Consolidation on the Edge Between Support and Resistance

The primary trend of gold remains bullish, but price movement is settling into a critical zone. A daily close below Wednesday’s low at 4,423 dollars could trigger a correction toward 4,400 dollars. The RSI index shows a flat profile, remaining above the neutral territory, indicating a lack of momentum but not a trend reversal.

To resume the bullish push, XAU/USD needs to return above the 4,500-dollar level. Surpassing this level could open the door to the all-time high of 4,549 dollars, with a subsequent target at 4,600. Conversely, a decline below 4,400 dollars exposes the support of the 20-day moving average at 4,376 dollars. A further break of this level could undermine the psychological support at 4,300 dollars, while a decline below the recent cyclical low at 4,274 dollars would call into question the entire long-term bullish trend.