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Strike Gold by Sharing Your TradFi Orders and Pictures!
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📍 US December CPI: The best CPI reading since Trump took office
📌 Year-over-year (YoY)
- Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY - unchanged from the previous month, in line with forecasts.
- Core #CPI: +2.6% YoY - unchanged from the previous month, below the forecast +2.7%.
📌 Month-over-month (MoM)
- Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM - unchanged from the previous month and in line with forecasts.
- Core CPI: +0.2% MoM - unchanged from the previous month, below the forecast +0.3%.
📌 Supercore CPI +0.14% MoM, +2.84% YoY (lowest since 09/2021).
📍 Details of changes by basket
- Food increased sharply by +0.7% MoM
- Core goods (Core goods) -0.001% MoM -> limited impact from tariffs on goods.
- Services still increased by +0.223% MoM, but housing services slowed to +0.3% MoM, +2.9% YoY (lowest since 12/2021).
-> The housing group always has a significant lag, private data indicates housing prices will continue to fall.
📍 It can be said that this is the best CPI reading since Trump took office. Both YoY and MoM for CPI and Core CPI are lower than forecasts. Goods are entering deflation, and continued declines in housing will contribute to further lowering CPI in the coming months.
Signals from CPI confirm that the inflation surge in Q3-Q4 has ended. The Fed can fully consider this as evidence that inflation is returning to the 2% target and accelerate interest rate cuts. The scenario of "the Fed cutting rates as early as 2026" is supported.