The Biggest Lie of 2025: Your Assets "Have Increased"

If you think you've made money in 2025,
then you might have just been comforted by inflation.
After reading Ray Dalio's 10,000-word article "2025 Year-End Reflection," I only remember one sentence:

Most people haven't earned less, but have "not earned anything at all."

① You think it's a bull market, but actually it's currency collapsing
Dalio provided an extremely harsh data point:

S&P 500:

Measured in USD: +18%

Measured in gold: -28%

What does that mean?
When your unit of measurement itself is depreciating,
asset appreciation is just a reflection of inflation.
It's not that you're richer,
it's that money is becoming less valuable.

② The real Alpha in 2025: not AI, but gold
This year's strongest asset isn't tech stocks, computing power, or narratives.
It's gold.
Not because gold is "sexy,"
but because it doesn't need others' credit backing.
As the world leverages more, prints more money, and extends debt,
the only winner is what cannot be diluted.

③ Capital is systematically leaving the US
2025 is the year "faith in US stocks" begins to waver.
Dalio states very plainly:
Capital, value, and wealth are flowing out of the US.
The evidence is also very straightforward:

🇪🇺 Europe: outperforms US stocks by 23%

🇨🇳 China: outperforms by 21%

🇬🇧 UK: outperforms by 19%

This is not a coincidence,
it's driven by de-dollarization + geopolitical risk hedging asset reallocation.

④ The US problem isn't the economy, but "division"
Trump-style government-led capitalism has indeed driven up asset prices—
but at the cost of extreme polarization:

Top 10%: assets skyrocket (stocks, financial assets)

Bottom 60%: continuously harvested by inflation

This is not a cyclical issue, but a structural one.
Dalio's judgment is very cold:

From 2026 to 2028,
a direct conflict between democratic socialism and hard right,
will be the biggest black swan.

⑤ The truth about valuation: you're exchanging high risk for low returns
How expensive are US stocks now?
Dalio's long-term expected return:
4.7%
Even lower than bond yields.
Risk premium is almost zero.
In other words:

Investing now,
is using "systemic risk"
to exchange for "almost no excess return."

Liquidity premium is drying up.

So why do I instead feel: this is good for Bitcoin?
Dalio's entire discussion is about gold,
but the logic is more deadly and direct for Bitcoin.
Because three things are already certain:
① Long-term fiat currency depreciation is inevitable
What you need is: assets that cannot be infinitely issued
② Geopolitical tensions accelerate confrontation
Funds need: censorship-resistant, cross-border, sovereign-risk-free safe assets
③ Debt cannot be cleared, only printed more
Every liquidity crisis ends with: Pump
Gold will rise,
but Bitcoin is the high Beta version of gold.

Final words
In 2025,
the biggest illusion isn't "I missed out,"
but:

"I made money."

The real question is:
Are you earning in terms of purchasing power,
or just digital illusions?
In 2026, you should hold tightly to your #Bitcoin
Not because of optimism,
but because reality has left no other choice.