The prediction on Polymarket about invading Venezuela directly went wrong at settlement. A bunch of people who bought YES were eagerly expecting to get paid, only to be told — the US government actually did not invade.

This is quite awkward. What exactly is the definition of "invasion"? Does precise military strikes count? Do economic sanctions count? Or does it have to be tanks rolling in to qualify as an invasion? The settlement rules of prediction markets are so vague that how can participants bet with clarity?

This reflects a significant issue — when prediction markets encounter highly ambiguous narratives like geopolitical events, settlement disputes are inevitable. Who has the final say, how the official definition is set, whether market participants can accept it — none of these have clear standards. This can seriously undermine trust in the prediction market ecosystem.