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Imagine this scenario: you travel back to the dawn of the automotive industry, witnessing how this invention transforms the entire society. Wheels keep turning forward, the national economy soars, and population movement, business models, and lifestyles are completely reshaped. What would you think at this moment? Most likely, you would say—this is definitely a track worth betting on.
But here lies the problem.
At that time, the number of American automobile companies reached 2,000. Yes, two thousand. All these companies dreamed of carving out a share in this sunrise industry. But in the end? History gave a cold answer: only 3 companies survived.
Even more ironically, during certain periods, the stock prices of these remaining 3 companies fell below their book value—that is, even these survivors didn't make money for investors.
This case hits the often overlooked truth in investing: **The contribution of an industry to society and the returns it can generate for investors are often not positively correlated.** A high-growth track isn't necessarily a high-yield investment. Reality such as intensified competition, overcapacity, and price wars can ruthlessly erode profits.
Conversely, genuine investment opportunities are often hidden in companies that seem unremarkable, with established competitive landscapes and clear moats. It's easy to identify the upcoming failures, but the real challenge is finding those that can survive and still make money.