Trading the Market Structure vs. Chasing Predictions

On Polymarket, most participants are caught in prediction mode—endlessly trying to forecast what happens next. But here's what actually works: stop predicting.

The real edge comes from trading market structure itself. Here's the framework:

**The Setup That Actually Pays**
- Skip predictions entirely. No crystal ball required.
- Ignore insider information. You won't have it anyway.
- Focus exclusively on near-resolved events where the outcome is crystallizing.
- When market probability sits at 98–99%, you'd think the price reflects reality. Except it doesn't.

This is where the opportunity lives. Even when an event is basically locked in—market consensus screaming certainty—price still trades at a discount. The spread between implied probability and actual market price creates the edge.

It's not about being smarter than the crowd. It's about recognizing the mechanical inefficiency in how markets price certainty.