#比特币价格表现 Looking at the prediction probability on Polymarket dropping from $100,000 to 8%, I have to say that the market sentiment shift is quite interesting. In just two days, the bearish sentiment has clearly intensified, with the probability of reaching $95,000 dropping from 32% to 25%, while the probability of falling below $80,000 has increased.

This is what I often say—don't be driven by FOMO. When the narrative of hitting $100,000 by the end of the year is everywhere, I am observing. The more enthusiastic the market consensus, the greater the hidden risks tend to be. Now, as the probabilities are gradually being revised downward, it essentially reflects large funds adjusting their expectations, not necessarily any sudden negative news.

Anyone who has experienced multiple bull and bear cycles knows that predicted probabilities are a barometer of market sentiment. When most people are betting at a certain price level, it often means that risks have already been partially priced in. Those who can survive longer are usually the ones who stay clear-headed during the hype and don't blindly chase highs.

My advice is: instead of obsessing over whether it's $100,000 or $80,000, it's better to think carefully about your own cost basis and risk tolerance. There will always be stories about ending the year strong, but your account is your own. Protecting your existing gains is much more valuable than chasing after illusory predictions.