#2026CryptoOutlook

When I think about the 2026 cycle, I don’t see it as a clean extension of the prior bull market, but I also don’t see it as the beginning of a deep reset. To me, 2026 looks more like a transitional year a period where the excesses of the late bull phase are being worked off while the foundations for the next structural expansion are being built. In other words, it feels less like euphoria and more like digestion. That distinction matters, because the best opportunities in markets usually emerge when narratives are being refined, not when they’re being hyped.
I’d describe the current phase as a mix of late-cycle behavior and early-cycle construction happening at the same time. On the surface, you still see remnants of bull market psychology strong conviction, crowded trades, and aggressive narratives. But underneath, capital is becoming more selective. Liquidity is no longer spraying across everything indiscriminately. Projects are being forced to justify themselves not just with ideas, but with usage, revenue, or at least a clear path to relevance. That’s typically how one cycle quietly transitions into the next.
Looking across narratives, I’m increasingly focused on which ones can survive when liquidity tightens and attention moves on. AI, for example, feels like a narrative that won’t disappear, but it will change form. The speculative layer tokens loosely associated with “AI” will likely struggle across cycles. What survives are protocols that genuinely integrate AI into infrastructure, data, or coordination in ways that are difficult to replicate. AI as a concept is durable; AI as a meme is not.
Real-world assets feel different. RWA isn’t exciting in the same way memes or AI hype cycles are, but that’s exactly why I think it has staying power. Tokenization of yield-bearing assets, credit, and settlement rails aligns with how capital already works in traditional markets. It doesn’t require new behavior from users, only better rails. That kind of narrative tends to survive across cycles because it solves real problems for real capital, not just for crypto-native speculation.
Layer 2s are another area where I’m very selective but structurally bullish. The idea that blockchains scale without execution environments around them no longer makes sense. L2s that act as distribution layers, liquidity hubs, or specialized execution environments will continue to matter. What won’t survive is the long tail of indistinguishable rollups with no users, no moat, and no reason to exist. In that sense, L2s as a category survive but only a handful of them actually compound value.
Memes, in my view, are cyclical by nature. They don’t survive across cycles as individual assets, but the behavior they represent absolutely does. Every cycle creates its own memes because speculation and culture are permanent features of markets. I don’t allocate to memes with the expectation of durability. I treat them as expressions of liquidity, sentiment, and attention. They can generate outsized returns, but they are not long-term holdings in a core portfolio.
DePIN is interesting because it sits somewhere between infrastructure and narrative. The idea of using tokens to coordinate real-world infrastructure is compelling, but execution is everything. Many DePIN projects are still proving whether token incentives can sustainably bootstrap supply and demand. I think a small subset will survive and even thrive, but most will fade once subsidies end. DePIN is a long-term idea moving at a much slower pace than market hype suggests.
When it comes to allocation, my core logic is simple: durability first, optionality second, speculation last. The majority of my exposure sits in assets and ecosystems that I believe can exist through multiple market regimes platforms, infrastructure, and protocols that benefit from increased adoption rather than constant narrative renewal. Around that core, I allocate selectively to higher-risk themes where upside is asymmetric but position sizing reflects the probability of failure.
I’m not trying to predict which narrative will dominate headlines in 2026. I’m trying to stay positioned in things that don’t need headlines to survive. In a transitional cycle like this, capital preservation and adaptability matter more than chasing the loudest story. The next major winners are rarely obvious at the peak of enthusiasm they’re usually being built quietly while the market argues about whether the cycle is over or just getting started.
To me, 2026 isn’t the end of something. It’s the sorting phase. And how capital is positioned during sorting often determines who benefits most from the next expansion.