#去中心化预测市场 Data movements on Polymarket deserve attention. The probability of Bitcoin rising to $100,000 within the year has dropped to 10% from earlier expectations, reflecting a clear weakening in market expectations for short-term breakthroughs. In comparison, the probability at the $95,000 level still stands at 32%, while the probability of breaking below $80,000 reaches 18%—this distribution reveals the market's true sentiment: downside risks are accumulating, and upside space is contracting.

From an on-chain capital perspective, the probability movements of such prediction markets often lead spot market sentiment by half a beat. When prediction market participants concentrate their bets on downside or sideways ranges, it typically means institutions and seasoned players have already adjusted their strategic expectations. Bitcoin's recent consolidation at high levels, combined with this probability decline, suggests that incremental buying pressure may be insufficient.

It is recommended to focus on two signals: first, changes in large fund positions on Polymarket, and second, monitoring the support strength at the $80,000 level—if this level is effectively broken, prediction probabilities may see further adjustments, at which point it may be necessary to reassess portfolio positioning strategies for the fourth quarter.