BTC Double Risk: 1.699 Billion Short Positions vs. 1.475 Billion Long Positions Liquidation Intensity Confrontation

According to the latest news, BTC is currently in a sensitive zone of liquidation risk. Data shows that if BTC breaks through $97,901, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.699 billion; conversely, if it falls below $88,694, the long liquidation strength will reach $1.475 billion. Currently, BTC is priced at $93,394, exactly between these two key levels, meaning that whether it moves upward or downward, large-scale liquidations could be triggered.

Liquidation Strength Map: Three Key Price Levels

Market Significance at Current Position

BTC is in the middle of a liquidation trap

The current price of $93,394 is about $4,500 below the breakout point at $97,901 and about $4,700 above the support at $88,694. This means that a 4.8% increase or a 5% decrease is enough to trigger large-scale liquidations in either direction. This symmetrical risk distribution reflects that both bulls and bears are accumulating positions, and the proximity of liquidation strength indicates a market in balance.

Greater risk of short liquidation

The $1.699 billion short liquidation strength exceeds the $1.475 billion long liquidation strength by about $224 million, suggesting that bearish positions are relatively more prevalent in the market. This may reflect cautious attitudes among some investors regarding BTC’s upward movement, but it also means that a breakout upward could trigger a more intense chain reaction of liquidations.

Market Context: Why BTC Can Hold This Level

Institutional and ETF accumulation continues

According to the latest data, last week institutional investors added 5,891 BTC, with MicroStrategy purchasing an additional 1,283 BTC. Meanwhile, spot BTC ETF inflows last week amounted to approximately $459 million, with total net inflows reaching $57 billion. These capital inflows provide solid fundamental support for BTC’s price, enabling it to remain relatively stable between the two liquidation risk points.

Technical indicators show upward momentum

Analysis indicates that BTC’s technical indicators are showing bullish signals, with the price maintaining above key moving averages. Over the past 7 days, BTC has risen by 5.84%, demonstrating a clear upward trend. This technical strength may give bulls more confidence to challenge the $97,901 key level.

Practical Implications of Liquidation Risks

Upward breakout risk chain

If BTC breaks through $97,901, $1.699 billion worth of shorts will be forced to liquidate. In leveraged trading, short liquidation means these bearish traders’ positions are forcibly closed, forcing them to buy back BTC at higher prices to cover losses. This can push prices higher, creating a liquidation spiral that may accelerate BTC’s rapid ascent.

Downward breakdown risk chain

Conversely, if BTC falls below $88,694, $1.475 billion worth of longs will be triggered to liquidate. Long liquidation means bullish traders are forced to sell, which can accelerate the price decline and form a negative feedback loop.

Summary

BTC is currently at a delicate equilibrium point. On the upside, there is a $1.699 billion short liquidation risk; on the downside, a $1.475 billion long liquidation risk, forming a relatively symmetrical risk framework. Continuous institutional accumulation and ETF capital inflows support the price, and technical indicators also show upward momentum. However, this does not mean the risks are eliminated—in fact, it may increase the likelihood of an upward breakout. Investors should closely monitor the $97,901 key level, as a breakout could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. At the same time, the support below $88,694 cannot be ignored; if this level is broken, the downside risk is equally significant. In such a minefield of liquidation risks, risk management becomes especially important.