#去中心化预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop from previously high levels to 10% brings a familiar feeling. This isn't the first time witnessing such a turning point.

I still remember the madness at the end of 2017, when everyone was shouting about $100,000, as if it was just a matter of time. But by 2018, many steadfast believers wavered. Then came the rebound in 2020, another wave of hope. By the end of 2021, history repeated itself—when everyone believed something was inevitable, the market often gave the exact opposite answer.

The current data is quite interesting. A 10% probability, a 32% chance of reaching $95,000, plus an 18% risk of dropping below $80,000. This distribution itself tells a story—the market has shifted from a "certain breakout" single-threaded mindset to weighing multiple possibilities. More importantly, this shift is happening at a time when the window is closing, indicating a real reassessment of risk rather than short-term emotional fluctuations.

I've seen too many prediction markets give answers driven by extreme emotions. History shows that when the probability drops from 90% to 10%, it's not that the market has gone stupid, but that participants are voting with real money to reflect their new understanding of risk. Such a shift often signals that a cycle node is forming.

The question isn't whether Bitcoin can reach 10万, but what stage this turning point occurs at and what it signifies.