2026-01-05 07:00:23

#数字资产动态追踪 Guessing Game for the Fed Chair Nominee

These days, the market is pondering one thing—Trump is very likely to nominate Haskett or Waller to lead the Federal Reserve this month, with both having a 39% chance. The key variable depends on Waller; this guy leans towards a tightening stance, so if he gets the position, the rate cut pace will have to be pushed back. In the short term, this will indeed put psychological pressure on risk assets, but don’t forget a basic fact: political decisions are worlds apart from policy implementation, and the market has already been pricing in various expectations in advance.

On-Chain Data Tells a More Direct Story

The recent performance of BTC spot ETFs clearly illustrates the point. Although GBTC’s net outflows slowed last night, IBIT and other products are still aggressively accumulating, with a single-day net inflow of $210 million—basically, institutions are buying the dip.

Looking at the BTC reserves on exchanges, they decreased by 43,000 coins in a week, hitting a nearly three-month low, indicating that selling pressure is clearly weakening. Correspondingly, the stablecoin side, USDT’s market cap just broke through the $110 billion mark, a new all-time high, showing that off-chain funds are already ready.

If Waller’s appointment is finalized, the market is likely to create a “fake dip” to shake out weak hands. But the real chips are in the hands of long-term holders—HODLers’ holdings account for 76%. What does this ratio mean? It indicates strong resilience among large investors, suggesting there are backing support underneath.

From a technical perspective, the key support level coincides with the main cost zone of ETFs, so the downside is actually tightly pinned. History tends to repeat itself: once news breaks, there’s first a panic spike, followed by liquidity-driven rebounds—this was how it played out during the Jackson Hole meeting in 2024. $BTC

BTC-0.43%

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GasFeeCrier

· 01-08 06:12

If Wosh moves up, then lowering interest rates will have to wait. This wave of panic selling is probably just another tactic to shake people out. Institutions are still pouring money in, and the HODL community accounts for 76%, indicating that the bottom was actually prepared early. The Federal Reserve's candidate battles are always like this; the market has already digested it. Don't be fooled by short-term psychological pressure. USDT has broken 110 billion, and off-exchange funds are ready to move. If it really drops, it’s just an opportunity to get in. Yesterday, net inflow into spot ETFs was still positive, showing that institutions are quite steady in bottom-fishing. Exchange reserves of BTC have hit a three-month low, and selling pressure is probably about to become unsustainable. The downward space is locked, and the support level is so strong that even a dip is just for psychological reassurance. Every key news cycle follows this pattern: first smash, then rally. Last year at Jackson Hole, it played out live.

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MeaninglessGwei

· 01-08 05:58

Wosh's rate cut is no longer possible, but the机构's recent accumulation actions really didn't deceive anyone. IBIT's massive purchase of 210 million indicates someone is bottom-fishing. --- It's the "fake dip to shake out" tactic again. History tends to repeat itself, so let's just wait for liquidity to reverse and rise. --- 76% of HODlers sounds impressive, but I still think the news impact this time won't be small. Short-term psychological pressure is definitely there. --- Stablecoins have already broken 110 billion. Is there still money outside the market? That makes me even more worried. Is this an accumulation of ammunition or laying the groundwork for something? --- Support levels are "firmly nailed"? Sounds like self-encouragement. Anyway, no one cares about technicals during a decline. --- What does the slowdown in net outflow from GBTC mean? Institutions are not in such a hurry to run, or perhaps they've already finished running. --- Exchange BTC reserves decreased by 43,000 coins. The data looks good, but lack of selling pressure ≠ no one wants to dump.

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CryptoGoldmine

· 01-05 07:30

Institutions remain silent in the face of a net inflow of 210 million, and this is what it means to let the data speak. The fact that 76% of HODLers are holding indicates a consensus at the bottom, and the technical support levels have long been nailed down. --- Wosh's rise indeed may cause a shakeout, but the more noteworthy signal is the exchange BTC reserves hitting a three-month low. Stablecoins have broken through 110 billion, off-chain funds are gearing up, and a false dip could be an opportunity to deploy. --- Don't be distracted by political news. On-chain data has long been telling the truth—IBIT absorbed 210 million USD in a single day, and institutional choices are more convincing than predictions. --- Honestly, it doesn't matter much whether you focus on Wosh or Hasset now. Looking at the data showing GBTC outflows slowing, IBIT rapidly absorbing, and HODLer proportions reaching new highs, the market bottom characteristics have already formed. --- Interestingly, every policy expectation shock tends to follow the same pattern—initial dip followed by a rebound. Isn't that what happened in 2024? Now, with USDT's market cap at a historic high, we're just waiting for the news to land.

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probably_nothing_anon

· 01-05 07:17

Wosh's upgrade = interest rate cuts are still a distant prospect, but look at IBIT still accumulating, institutions are not worried at all --- It's the same old story of panic selling first and then reversing to rally, played out like this at Jackson Hole last year, and now it's happening again? --- USDT surpassing 110 billion, stablecoins are stacked this high, indicating that off-chain funds have long been itching to move --- 76% of holdings are locked by HODLers, so the downside space is truly pinned down, and the market can't even crash --- Political decisions and policy implementations are worlds apart, the market has already digested the expected changes, so there's really nothing to fear this time --- Exchange BTC reserves decreased by 43,000 coins in a week, selling pressure is exhausted, and this is the real signal --- Fake dips to shake out traders, the real chips are still in the hands of big players, someone is holding the bottom

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DevChive

· 01-05 07:17

Manipulation theories are everywhere, institutions have long been full, and we're still debating who will be the next Federal Reserve Chair. The script of pinning and washing the market really needs to be changed, but we still have to obediently take the dip. USDT hits a new high again, off-chain funds are eager to try, is this time really different? I don’t believe you. 76% of HODLers are backing the market, in plain terms, big players are not panicking, small retail investors should be cautious. Interest rate cuts are nowhere in sight, tightening policies are in place, short-term pain is unavoidable. On-chain data looks so impressive, but I feel like it's all just a smoke screen for the retail investors. If Wosh really gets selected, we should be mentally prepared for a washout.

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RugpullTherapist

· 01-05 07:13

If Uh-Wosh takes the top position, the rate cut will be gone, which is really a tease... However, institutions are all buying the dip, indicating they have known for a long time. The HODLer ratio of 76% is incredible; the real big players have already locked in their positions, and us retail investors are just waiting to be carried along. It's the old trick of fake dips and shakeouts; the Jackson Hole event was exactly the same, and the market falls for it every time.

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