Recently, Bitcoin finally broke through the silver line that it had failed to conquer five times before, followed by a clear retest and bullish confirmation. This signal is very clear—short-term resistance has been successfully broken, and the bulls seem ready to continue their push. But is that the whole story? Not quite.

My bullish target is locked between 97K and 10.7K. Why choose these two levels? Because the market liquidity here is particularly abundant. Many investors will reflexively think "the bull market is back" when the price hits these levels. But reality is more complex—by the time it reaches this range, BTC is likely to continue declining.

The key evidence supporting this judgment comes from the actions of the Federal Reserve. On New Year’s Day, the Fed injected $106 billion into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements. The figure itself warrants deep analysis. Even more noteworthy is the background: the Fed amended its lending rules in September 2025, and the FOMC’s press release was also published on the same day—possibly to reduce attention to the new rules.

The original standing repo agreement had a daily lending limit of $500 billion, which was usually repaid within a day or two. Now it has changed—each bank’s lending cap has been adjusted to $240 billion. This is a huge warning signal, plainly indicating that the pressure on the financial system is far beyond most people's understanding. The Fed is preparing for the possibility of liquidity demands from multiple large institutions simultaneously, to prevent chaos when that happens. Lessons from history tell us that when banks face tense situations... the market often experiences a wave of intense volatility.